It’s that time of year. Everyone is flag planting on rookies they are convinced will be the next star. The guy they can’t leave their rookie drafts without. Their “My Guy”! I look at things a little differently. I want players in good or productive situations. So I’m unveiling my first annual “My Spot”. These are the landing spots that I am looking to see who goes there and scoop them up. I’m not going to draft these guys way above ADP, but the player who lands in these spots will jump to the top of their tier group or could jump into the next tier up. I will probably have them maybe half a round earlier then most.
Dustin’s 2025 My Landing Spots
Wide Receiver – Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are rebuilding. They have a superstar in tight end Brock Bowers. They went out and traded for quarterback Geno Smith and now look to rebuild the rest of the offense. When I’m looking for a landing spot, I want a place where there is little competition for targets. After Brock Bowers, the receiving group for the Raiders is lacking. There are Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Kyle Phillips. Meyers saw 129 targets last year. That puts him at the 19th most in the league last year. Despite that, Meyers only had 1027 yards and 4 touchdowns. After Meyers, the next leading man, Tucker, had 78 targets. There is plenty of room for a rookie to walk in and be a day-one impact player. It’s not always vacated targets but the available targets up for grabs.
The question most pundits will have is what type of receiver will that be. What if it’s a big-bodied outside receiver like a Tet McMillan or a Travis Hunter? Just look at what Geno Smith did with D.K. Metcalf the past few years. I would love 1000 yards and over 5 touchdowns for a rookie. What if it’s a guy who rotates into the slot like Emeka Egbuka? Tyler Lockett had some really good years playing that role in a Geno Smith-led offense. A pure slot receiver like Luther Burden or Xavier Restrepo. Well, we are all in love with the breakout that Jaxon Smith-Njigba just had while playing the majority of his time in the slot.
Geno Smith is a veteran quarterback who understands how to get the ball to a receiver no matter where or how they play. I like that. We are looking at a wide receiver stepping into the Raiders’ lineup and being a Week 1 producer. He may not be a fantasy superstar, but he lands in a spot that is ripe for volume.
Tight End- Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts are trying to get back to being a Super Bowl contender. They have invested significant resources to that end on the offensive side. Owner Jim Irsay paid running back Jonathan Taylor in 2023. They spent top ten draft capital on quarterback Anthony Richardson. In the past three years the Colts have made 44 total picks and 29 of them have been on the offensive side of the ball including 7 of their 10 selections in the first three rounds in those years be on the offensive side of the ball. Michael Pittman looks like a solid option, but Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell have struggled to find a consistent footing on the team. Someone needs to step up and be a solid second or third option for the team.
The Colts have struggled to find a tight end to fill out the receiving group. They spent a third-round pick on Jelani Woods back in 2022. He has missed the past two seasons with injuries. Kylen Granson was a 4th round pick back in 2021. He is now on the Philadelphia Eagles roster. Mo Alie-Cox has been the veteran presence but is currently looking for a new contract at age 31. There are two young under developed options in Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory, but neither has seen over 3 targets in a single game. The spot is open for a rookie tight end to land there and see significant playing time.
So we have a playing time. Will there be opportunities? Let’s break down what happened last year. Granson was the leading man of the group. He ran routes on 90% of his snaps. In total, the tight end room ran 580 routes. That’s on 513 passing attempts. Granson also ran 46% of his routes from the slot position. Despite Granson running a ton of routes, he only saw 30 targets. In terms of vacated targets, we have 60 with Granson and Alie-Cox gone. Give those to a rookie, and they have the potential to be a solid streamable tight end option. Maybe not a top-end talent like we have seen from Brock Bowers or Sam LaPorta the past few years, but certainly someone that you want on your fantasy roster. The quarterback situation is wonky, but Shane Steichen comes from the Philadelphia Eagles, who had a ton of success with an offense that featured Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Running Back- Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford was a league winner in 2023. A big part of that was due to the injury to Nick Chubb. 2024 came around, and while Chubb missed the first part of the season, Ford was still the workhorse. It wasn’t till later in the season that Ford started to fall off. his snap share stayed consistent, and so did his carries, but he wasn’t seeing the volume that made him so great in 2023. Now Nick Chubb is gone. Ford is still on the roster, but behind him are Pierre Strong and Troy Hairston.
A rookie can easily land there and be at worst a passing down back. Jerome Ford’s yards per carry average was good in 2024. He was averaging 5.43 yards per carry. That was a huge jump from the 3.99 he had back in 2023. He wasn’t a huge asset in the passing game. He only saw 43 targets in 2024. With the quarterback situation being in turmoil, having a solid pass-catching back would take pressure off of them.
The Browns have made a ton of mistakes at the quarterback situation and have a ton of cap space tied up there. Ford is still on his rookie contract, but this is his last year. With a deep running back class, the Browns could easily select a rusher on day two or even three who can replace Ford moving forward. If Ford can’t get back to his 2023 volume, he won’t hold the starting job.
The Browns were already willing to give the job back to Chubb. In Weeks 11-15, Chubb out-carried Ford 60-35. Ford was even losing carries earlier in the season to D’Onta Foreman. I see myself using a 2nd round pick on the Browns’ rookie running back. While others may laugh at the pick, they will be eating those words later in the season when I have a solid option to rotate into my lineup.
Wide Receiver- Tennessee Titans
I don’t care who the quarterback is. It can be Will Levis, Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, or Tim Boyle. The Titans have a glaring need at wide receiver. They tried to fill it with DeAndre Hopkins in 2023. Tyler Boyd couldn’t fill it in 2024. Treylon Burks has never been it. It was such a vacuum that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine went from just a fun name to say to a solid fantasy producer for an eight-game stretch in the middle of the season. I now want whatever rookie lands there.
Calvin Ridley is still there. While having some down years for fantasy, he is still the lead guy that teams need to commit their top corner to more often than not. After Ridley, there is tight end Chig Okonkwo. While I love Chig for his after-the-catch skills, he hasn’t commanded the attention that players like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews do. That is both from the defenders and the quarterback. There are 112 vacated targets from Westbrook-Ikhine and Boyd. That’s plenty of volume for a rookie. Running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears will still get their targets. Pollard had 55 last season. If that number comes down slightly and goes towards a receiver, we could see a ton of volume.
The rookie class isn’t super deep, but there will be plenty of options for the Titans at the top of the 2nd round. The Titans brought in Brian Callahan last season to help replicate the offense he ran with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have been able to produce two and, at times, three solid fantasy options. I want whatever rookie they draft. I will take them because of the landing spot. It’s ripe for someone to step up into not only playing time but volume as well.
Running Back- Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears fans are happy. The team has finally turned over a new leaf. After years of struggling they hired Ben Johnson from divisional rival Detroit Lions. It’s the latest in a line of moves to turn the team around. They drafted quarterback Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze last year. They traded for D.J. Moore the year prior. Now they can focus not on areas of need but on a more scheme fit. So why do I believe that will be a running back?
First, D’Andre Swift is there. He was good last year. Swift had 253 carries and 52 targets. He finished the season as the RB19 for fantasy. He wasn’t an efficient rusher. His yards per carry were the lowest of his career at 3.79. The Bears also have Roschon Johnson on the roster, who wasn’t overly involved in the game plan. So what does Ben Johnson and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle have in the works for this year?
First, Swift was on a team with Ben Johnson back in Detroit. After the first year as offensive coordinator for the Lions, they moved on from Swift, shipping him to the Philadelphia Eagles. Does that mean that Johnson might want to make a change in Chicago as well? It’s reasonable to assume that Johnson wants to deploy a scheme similar to what the Lions are running. That would involve a two-back set. A bruiser like David Montgomery and a speedster like Jahmyr Gibbs. SO, what type of role does Swift fit? He’s not as big as Montgomery. Both in height and weight. He is closer in size to Gibbs but doesn’t have the burst or speed Gibbs does. Swift does have the pass-catching ability like Gibbs, so there is reason to believe he can fill that role. If Swift is the Gibbs, who is the Montgomery?
You could argue Roschon Johnson. A player I love, but he hasn’t shown the consistency that Monty has. Roschon is the size match for Monty, but not the same on the field. I expect the Bears to bring in someone. On top of needing someone to fill that role, Swift is nearing the end of his contract, and after this year, the dead cap is next to nothing compared to his salary. Someone like Cam Skattebo, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson, and Ollie Gordon III fits the bill. If one of them fills this landing spot, then I’m going to have a ton of shares this season.
