The landscape of fantasy football wide receivers for the upcoming 2024 season presents a myriad of opportunities and challenges for managers navigating draft boards. From proven veterans to emerging talents and rookies, each player brings a unique blend of skills and circumstances that impact their fantasy outlook. Understanding the dynamics of target shares, offensive schemes, and injury histories is crucial in making informed draft decisions. This season promises to be both exciting and unpredictable, with wide receivers poised to play pivotal roles in shaping fantasy championship aspirations.
37.Hollywood Brown WR – KC (6), +2 vs. ECR
Hollywood Brown’s move to Kansas City brings both promise and uncertainty for fantasy football enthusiasts. Despite consistent soft tissue issues that have plagued his availability, Brown managed a healthy 22% target share last season with the Cardinals, though his production lagged as the WR53 in points per game.
Throughout his career, Brown has typically commanded a mid-20s percentage of targets but has never finished higher than WR29 due to various factors. In Kansas City, Brown joins a strong receiving corps featuring Travis Kelce and potentially Rashee Rice, adding to the complexity of target distribution. Unlike his previous teams, where he often stood as the primary target earner, the Chiefs’ roster dynamics introduce more competition for catches.
While concerns linger over Brown’s injury history and his ability to secure targets, particularly with Kelce and Rice in the mix, his deep-threat capabilities and upgrade in quarterback and offensive scheme could see him carve out an 18% or higher target share. This situates Brown as a boom-or-bust WR3 tier player in fantasy drafts, where his potential for big plays and a significant role in the Chiefs’ offense contrasts with the risk associated with his injury history and competition for targets. Fantasy managers eyeing Brown should weigh these factors carefully when considering his value and potential impact for the upcoming season.
38.Keenan Allen WR – CHI (7), -6 vs. ECR
Keenan Allen’s fantasy outlook for the upcoming season raises some important considerations. Undoubtedly, Allen has demonstrated his veteran prowess, securing over 1,200 yards and 108 receptions in just 14 games last season. His ability to get open and move the chains remains impressive.
However, recurring health concerns cast a shadow over his reliability. Allen missed the final 4 games last year and has been sidelined for 14 games over the past 4 seasons. Moreover, his fantasy production heavily relies on volume rather than explosive plays or high touchdown counts, with his target share typically ranging from 26-32%. If this share diminishes to the anticipated 20-22%, as suggested, it could cap Allen’s upside to a lower WR3 range despite his current WR2 ADP.
Thus, while Allen’s skills are undeniable, his injury history and potential volume adjustments warrant careful consideration for fantasy managers drafting this season.
Tier 9
39.Ladd McConkey WR – LAC (5), +6 vs. ECR
Ladd McConkey’s potential to emerge as the lead wide receiver for the Chargers this season hinges on his impressive skill set and the opportunity within the team’s offensive structure. Known for his route running and after-the-catch abilities, McConkey surprised with a 4.39 40-yard dash time at the combine, showcasing elite speed that complements his versatile role both outside and in the slot.
Despite the Chargers’ expected lower-volume offense compared to recent years, the top wideout in their system typically holds fantasy starter value. McConkey’s profile mirrors successful NFL receivers who excel in separation, speed, and versatility across the route tree from their college days. While he may not immediately dominate in September, McConkey’s trajectory suggests he could lead in receptions over the latter half of the season.
Comparatively, Marquise Brown saw success as a rookie under Greg Roman accruing a whopping 27.3% target share, highlighting potential focus from Herbert in the offense that could elevate McConkey’s role.
40.Jayden Reed WR – GB (10), -3 vs. ECR
Jayden Reed emerged as a sleeper pick among Packers wide receivers, buoyed by injuries to his teammates and his versatile skill set. Despite securing only a modest 17% target share last season, Reed defied the odds to finish as the WR23 in points per game, largely due to his impressive touchdown-scoring ability. He boasted a remarkable 8.6% touchdown rate, finding the end zone a total of 10 times, including twice on the ground.
Matt LaFleur’s potential to integrate Reed into a multifaceted role, evidenced by his 100+ yards rushing on just 11 carries, adds further intrigue to Reed’s fantasy outlook. His ADP value though may lean a touch high. Reed only managed 1 game above 80% route share, typically a necessary benchmark to maintain year-over-year volume for WRs. His versatile skill set has caught the attention of drafters to become a WR3, but his lack of routes and the likelihood of touchdown regression present a potentially low floor for Reed.
It’s worth remembering that the majority of his fantasy value stems from weeks 14-18 when Watson was no longer on the field.
41.Jameson Williams WR – DET (5), +8 vs. ECR
Jameson Williams is poised for a breakout season as he enters his third year in the league. After dealing with injuries and suspensions early in his career, this could be his opportunity to prove his worth as a former first-round NFL Draft pick. Positive reports this offseason suggest the coaching staff trusts Williams to line up opposite St. Brown as a starting wide receiver.
Known for his explosiveness, Williams showed promise despite a modest 10% target share last season. He ranked 5th in Average Depth of Target (ADOT) and 28th in Yards per Route Run (YPRR), highlighting his big-play ability. While increased volume might affect his efficiency, Williams has the potential to thrive with a typical WR2 target share of around 18-20%. Heading into this season, Williams stands out as one of the most intriguing sleeper picks, poised to capitalize on his talent and opportunity in the Detroit offense.
42.Brian Thomas Jr. WR – JAC (12), +6 vs. ECR
Brian Thomas brings an intriguing dynamic to the Jaguars’ offense, particularly with his prowess as a deep-ball receiver highlighted by his impressive physical attributes a 6’3″ frame, and a speedy 4.33 40-yard dash time from the combine. However, the key question surrounding Thomas revolves around his opportunity within an offense that boasts several viable receiving options.
In this scenario, Thomas’s primary competition for targets is likely to come from Gabe Davis, who has consistently garnered between 14% and 19% target share over the past two seasons. If Thomas can quickly prove himself and establish chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, there’s a chance he could surpass Davis in the pecking order for targets.
On the flip side, it’s equally plausible that Thomas starts with a more modest target share of around 14%, while Davis retains his role as the second option in volume behind Christian Kirk. Given this uncertainty, Thomas projects as a boom-or-bust WR4 tier player, making him a worthwhile late-round selection in fantasy drafts as a potential high-upside option. His ability to stretch the field and capitalize on big-play opportunities could provide fantasy managers with valuable production if he can carve out a significant role in the Jaguars’ offense.
43.Keon Coleman WR – BUF (12), +7 vs. ECR
Keon Coleman’s outlook as a rookie for the Bills is intriguing, especially considering the substantial target share up for grabs following the departures of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. Despite not possessing elite speed, Coleman brings a skill set tailored for contested catches and red zone effectiveness, attributes that could prove invaluable in Buffalo’s offense.
With receivers like Shakir and Samuels likely to vie for roles in the slot or flanker positions, Coleman appears primed for the X receiver spot, a position that historically commands significant snaps in the Bills’ scheme. Stefon Diggs, operating under Joe Brady last season, maintained a robust 29% target share from Weeks 11-18, showcasing the potential volume available to a primary perimeter receiver.
While Coleman may not inherit the entirety of Diggs’ share, securing a more modest 22-24% would position him solidly as a mid-range WR2 to mid-WR3 in fantasy football. This projection underscores Coleman’s potential to significantly outperform his current WR50 ADP, making him a compelling draft target for managers eyeing upside in the Buffalo passing game.
44.Jordan Addison WR – MIN (6), -2 vs. ECR
It’s indeed unusual in fantasy football to approach a second-year wide receiver cautiously, especially after a successful rookie season where they performed as the WR21. However, the caution surrounding Jordan Addison stems from his performance variations depending on the quarterback situation, particularly when Justin Jefferson was on or off the field.
During the games when Kirk Cousins and Jefferson were playing in the first five weeks of last season, Addison performed solidly as the WR27. In the brief period without Jefferson but with Cousins, he excelled as the WR3 overall. However, when neither Jefferson nor Cousins were available, Addison’s fantasy production dropped significantly, placing him as the WR46.
Addison’s ability to produce as a tier WR3 when Jefferson is on the field largely hinges on his touchdown share, which was quite high at 10.8% last season. It’s unlikely that such a touchdown rate will be sustainable year over year. For Addison to maintain his fantasy value, he’ll need to see more volume and yards, as his 16% target share with Jefferson on the field typically translates to low-end WR3 status in fantasy football terms.
Therefore, while Addison showed promise in his rookie season, fantasy managers may exercise caution due to the potential volatility in his production depending on the health and availability of teammate Jefferson, and the sustainability of his touchdown production.
45.Rome Odunze WR – CHI (7), +1 vs. ECR
In the upcoming season, Rome Odunze finds himself in a unique position within the wide receiver corps of his team. While often considered the third WR in projected target share, Odunze is likely to assume the primary X WR role in 3-wide receiver sets, with Keenan Allen expected to line up in the slot.
This distinction sets Odunze apart from Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role under Waldron last year. Moreover, Odunze brings a superior pedigree as a top-10 NFL Draft pick, boasting elite athleticism and a strong production profile. Waldron’s history as a play-caller suggests he tends to feature the X WR as a significant deep threat in the offense, much like DK Metcalf in previous roles. As a result, Odunze could see early opportunities for big plays with a baseline target share of around 18%, potentially increasing further depending on Allen’s health. This dynamic sets the stage for Odunze to make a notable impact in his rookie season.
Tier 10
46.Courtland Sutton WR – DEN (14), -4 vs. ECR
Courtland Sutton’s 2023 season was defined by a surprising spike in touchdowns, reaching double digits for the first time in his career. This outlier performance helped him exceed expectations and finish as the WR36 despite not hitting 100 targets or 800 receiving yards.
However, Sutton faces challenges heading into the upcoming season. With a change in quarterback from Russell Wilson to likely Bo Nix, known for different strengths in red zone and downfield throwing, Sutton’s ability to replicate his touchdown success is in question. Moreover, his historical yardage totals haven’t surpassed 900 yards since 2019, suggesting a limited ceiling in terms of yardage production.
Fantasy managers should approach Sutton cautiously, considering the potential for regression in both touchdowns and overall production given the uncertainties surrounding his role and quarterback situation.
47.Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR – SEA (10), -7 vs. ECR
JSN finished the season as WR60 on a points-per-game basis, which is respectable considering he was the 3rd wide receiver on the team. He maintained a solid target separation of 2.32 yards, ranking 6th in the league, highlighting his ability to get open despite his rookie status.
However, one significant issue was his inconsistent usage. JSN only had one game where he had over 85% route share. For him to become a viable fantasy option in typical 12-man redraft leagues, he will need to see an increase in his route share and playing time next season. This consistency in playing time is crucial for any receiver looking to establish themselves in fantasy football.
Currently, JSN remains a late-round dart throw and a stash option for deeper leagues. His potential value hinges on factors such as a decline in Lockett’s performance or an injury opening up more opportunities for him in the Seahawks’ offense.
48.Romeo Doubs WR – GB (10), +9 vs. ECR
Romeo Doubs remains a fringe fantasy option, with his viability largely propped up by an impressive 8.3% touchdown rate. However, given the volatility of touchdown production from year to year and factors like Jayden Reed’s development in his second year and Christian Watson’s improved health, Doubs faces a narrow path to upside in the upcoming season.
While he demonstrates solid skills as an NFL wide receiver and could serve as a serviceable spot starter from the waiver wire in 2024 redraft leagues, fantasy managers should approach Doubs cautiously, considering his limited fantasy ceiling amidst competition for targets in the Packers’ offense.
As fantasy football draft day approaches, the wide receiver position demands careful consideration. Veterans like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins offer reliability tempered with injury concerns and evolving team dynamics. Meanwhile, rising stars such as Ladd McConkey and Jameson Williams represent opportunities for breakout performances with their skill sets and potential roles in their respective offenses. Whether targeting established producers or betting on upside and potential, fantasy managers must weigh each player’s risk-reward profile. Navigating the 2024 wide receiver landscape requires foresight, flexibility, and a keen eye for identifying value amidst shifting team dynamics and player trajectories.
