In the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football, quarterback rankings hold a special intrigue. As we delve into the top tiers for 2024, the narrative unfolds with quarterbacks who embody resilience, explosive potential, and strategic prowess. Led by Josh Allen, whose dynamic playmaking has cemented him as a perennial favorite, the discussion transcends mere statistics to encompass the dynamic narratives shaping each player. Whether it’s Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat prowess or Patrick Mahomes’ quest for redemption, every storyline adds depth to the quarterback rankings. Join me as I navigate the complexities and promises of the quarterback landscape, offering insights to help you draft with confidence and clarity this fantasy season.
Tier 1
1.Josh Allen QB – BUF (12), +0 vs. ECR
Allen secured the QB1 spot last season, marking his third time in the last four years atop fantasy quarterback rankings. This year, much talk revolves around the departure of Stefon Diggs and the introduction of relatively unknown receiving options. Interestingly, during Diggs’ off-year under Joe Brady, Allen maintained his elite fantasy output, demonstrating resilience and consistency.
His success can be largely attributed to his formidable rushing ability, which Joe Brady’s play calling encourages rather than hinders-Allen scored an impressive 8 rushing touchdowns from Week 11 onwards. Under Brady’s guidance, Allen projected for 4,143 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 675 rushing yards, and an astonishing 19 rushing touchdowns over a 17-game pace. This stat line translated to a formidable 407 fantasy points, placing Allen just behind himself as QB2 overall.
Even during a season where Diggs struggled (WR46), Allen thrived, reminiscent of his QB6 finish in 2019 when lacking a top-tier WR1. Looking ahead, if Allen isn’t your top quarterback choice this year, it likely shouldn’t hinge solely on the absence of Diggs. His proven adaptability and enhanced mechanics since 2019 suggest continued fantasy dominance regardless of receiving corps changes.
2.Patrick Mahomes II QB – KC (6), +0 vs. ECR
Last season marked a downturn for Patrick Mahomes, his worst since becoming a starter. His touchdown rate fell to a career-low 4.5%, averaging just 261 passing yards per game with 7.0 yards per attempt and 6.5 air yards per attempt-the lowest of his career. Consequently, he ranked 17th in fantasy points per dropback, finishing as QB12 in points per game. While he excelled in rushing attempts (75) and yards (389), the absence of rushing touchdowns limited his impact in fantasy football.
The Chiefs struggled to replace Tyreek Hill’s dynamic presence, impacting Mahomes’ performance. Despite Travis Kelce’s strong season, starting below full health affected his explosiveness throughout the year. This deficiency forced Mahomes into a more conservative role, managing the game rather than dictating it. Kansas City addressed these concerns by adding deep threats like Hollywood Brown and drafting speedster Xavier Worthy. Their acquisitions are expected to create opportunities for Kelce and enhance the offense, especially once Hill returns from suspension.
With a defense that reached elite levels last season, Mahomes averaged 37 pass attempts per game, showing reduced passing volume. Historically, Mahomes rebounded strongly after his “down year” in 2019, consistently producing over 4,700 yards and 37 touchdowns in the following three seasons. With improvements in offensive weapons and a potential return to form, Mahomes is poised for a resurgence in the upcoming season.
3.Jalen Hurts QB – PHI (5), -2 vs. ECR
There are several lingering questions surrounding Jalen Hurts heading into this season, despite his consensus ranking as QB2 overall. One key query revolves around whether Hurts struggles when forced into high-volume passing situations. His quarterback rating dips to 81.1 when attempting more than 31 passes compared to 91.1 when staying under that threshold. With Kellen Moore’s offense showing a 57% tendency towards passing, there’s concern about whether this might hinder Hurts’ efficiency.
In 2023, Hurts played nine games with over 31 pass attempts and eight games with 31 or fewer. Interestingly, he averaged approximately 21.4 fantasy points per game in high-attempt games, slightly less than his 22.2 points per game in lower-attempt contests. This subtle difference underscores Hurts’ greater productivity with fewer passes, a trend evident since his rookie year under Nick Sirianni’s playcalling. Despite slight concerns over Moore’s system fit, I maintain Hurts’ QB2 ranking, largely due to his dual-threat capability and consistent rushing production hasn’t scored fewer than 10 rushing touchdowns in a season as a starter.
While questions linger about the Eagles’ offensive line, particularly without Jason Kelce, Hurts’ proven effectiveness in executing successful plays like the “tush-push” suggests he remains a formidable fantasy asset as long as he stays healthy.
4.Lamar Jackson QB – BAL (14), +2 vs. ECR
Lamar Jackson remains at his peak following an MVP-caliber season, albeit in a less competitive MVP race this year compared to his more impressive 2019 campaign. The stark contrast in fantasy points underscores this, as he amassed 421 fantasy points in 2019 versus 338 in 2023. Lamar is renowned for his consistency in fantasy, consistently finishing within the top 10 in fantasy points per game, solidifying his status as one of the most reliable QB1 choices available.
The 2023 season demonstrated his ability to rebound from previous injury setbacks, alleviating concerns of a potential decline and reaffirming confidence in his long-term performance. Known for his electrifying rushing abilities and game-changing plays, Lamar consistently ranks among the top three rushing quarterbacks.
However, what has separated Lamar from peers in pre-draft rankings of years past like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts is his lower touchdown production in passing and rushing. Allen has achieved 30+ passing touchdowns in three of the last four years, along with 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023, while Hurts has recorded double-digit rushing touchdowns for three consecutive seasons. In contrast, Lamar has surpassed 30 passing touchdowns only once (2019) and never exceeded 7 rushing touchdowns in a single season. Despite this, Lamar’s dual-threat capabilities ensure he delivers top-tier QB1 production week in and week out.
Tier 2
5.Kyler Murray QB – ARI (11), +3 vs. ECR
Murray seamlessly returned from his ACL injury without missing a beat, immediately asserting himself as QB9 in points per game upon his Week 10 comeback. His confidence as a rusher remained intact, averaging 5.5 carries and 30.5 yards per game, projecting 94 carries, 518 yards, and 6 touchdowns over a 17-game pace. This underscores Murray’s significant value as a rushing quarterback.
Consistency has been a hallmark of Murray’s fantasy prowess, never finishing outside the top 12 in points per game over the last five seasons, including two top 5 finishes. Heading into the upcoming season, Murray benefits from being a year removed from his injury, and now boasts a talented young receiver in Marvin Harrison and tight end Trey McBride as formidable passing options. These additions enhance Murray’s offensive arsenal and solidify his status as a valuable fantasy asset with multiple potent weapons at his disposal.
6.Anthony Richardson QB – IND (14), -1 vs. ECR
It’s hard not to be enthusiastic about Richardson’s fantasy potential. He showed promise early on, ranking as QB4 in points per game over the season’s first four weeks. His running ability is a clear upside; although hypothetical, he was on pace for an incredible 23 rushing touchdowns.
On the flip side, his passing metrics were well below average, which tempers some of the excitement. However, the shoulder injury he’s dealing with shouldn’t significantly impact his fantasy value unless it affects his availability. Richardson stands out as one of the few quarterbacks outside the top 5 with a genuine shot at finishing as QB1. However, due to his tendency for risky play, fantasy managers might need a backup plan more than with other quarterbacks, as his style of play isn’t likely to change drastically.
Tier 3
7.Joe Burrow QB – CIN (12), +0 vs. ECR
Joe Burrow’s fantasy outlook hinges on availability, a factor that has seen him play 16 games each in 2021 and 2022 but missed 7 games last season, impacting his ADP and perception. Currently drafted as QB7, reflecting baked-in risk, Burrow has consistently thrown 34 to 35 touchdowns in recent seasons, a range typical for top-tier pocket passers, where he achieved a top 5 finish in 2022.
Burrow’s talent and surrounding weapons suggest he could achieve his best season yet, potentially reaching a 40-touchdown mark. The Bengals’ offense leans heavily on passing, averaging 36 attempts per game throughout Burrow’s career. With Joe Mixon replaced by Zack Moss and Chase Brown, a committee approach in the backfield might further increase passing volume as Cincinnati gauges its ground game.
Regarded as appropriately valued in fantasy drafts, Burrow balances a high ceiling with injury risk, making him a calculated choice for managers seeking a quarterback with substantial upside.
8.C.J. Stroud QB – HOU (14), -2 vs. ECR
When evaluating Stroud’s potential, there’s little cause for concern overall. He finished last season as QB11 in points per game, marking one of the strongest rookie passing performances in recent memory. The Texans have bolstered their offensive arsenal with additions like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, complementing emerging talents like Nico Collins and Tank Dell. However, Stroud’s current ADP reflects the ceiling of his potential.
Historically, pocket-passing quarterbacks often need to exceed 4,000 yards and tally 30+ touchdowns to vie for top fantasy rankings. Last season, Stroud accumulated over 4,100 yards and 22 touchdowns in 15 games, projecting to 4,600 yards and 26 touchdowns over a full 17-game schedule. Increasing his touchdown efficiency will be crucial.
The potential for increased passing volume under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, influenced by the Shanahan coaching tree, could enhance Stroud’s fantasy appeal. While he doesn’t offer much as a rusher, ranking 21st in rushing yards last season, his success hinges on his ability to capitalize on offensive play-calling and surrounding talent. Despite his potential, the depth at quarterback this year with players like Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, and Brock Purdy limits Stroud’s comparative value.
Consequently, I rank him conservatively at 9th, considering his current ADP might overstate his immediate fantasy impact.
9.Dak Prescott QB – DAL (7), +0 vs. ECR
Dak Prescott appears poised for fantasy success following the Cowboys’ offseason decisions, where minimal adjustments were made to the running game and defensive talent. This suggests that offensive volume will remain high, as evidenced by Prescott’s 590 pass attempts last season, ranking 4th in the league.
Despite his ADP typically placing him at the lower end of QB1 territory, Prescott has consistently delivered when logging 590 pass attempts or more each season, finishing as QB7 or better. With prolific weapons like CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson at his disposal, Prescott is well-positioned to exceed expectations once again. The combination of volume and talented receivers sets the stage for Prescott to potentially outperform his ADP and deliver strong fantasy returns in the upcoming season.
10.Jayden Daniels QB – WAS (14), +2 vs. ECR
Jayden Daniels stands out among rookie quarterbacks for his dual-threat capabilities, having rushed for over 1,100 yards in his final college season. This trait alone promises significant fantasy potential, offering both high floors and ceilings. Kyler Murray, for instance, never surpassed 4000 passing yards or 26 passing touchdowns in a season under Kingsbury, yet consistently ranked as a top 10 QB in fantasy points per game, largely due to his adept rushing abilities. In fact, Murray finished his rookie year as QB7 overall.
However, there are concerns about Daniels’ long-term viability as an NFL franchise quarterback, particularly highlighted by his high 20.2% pressure-to-sack ratio in college. Despite this, from a fantasy perspective, dual-threat QBs often compensate for their pocket presence limitations by converting pressure into rushing yards, thereby accruing valuable fantasy points. Surrounded by weapons such as Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, Ben Sinnott, Zach Ertz, Brian Robinson, and Austin Ekeler, Daniels is well-positioned to succeed or at least establish a passing floor even in his rookie season.
His potential in fantasy leagues makes him a steal at his current ADP, particularly appealing to drafters employing a “wait on QB” strategy. With upside and a supportive offensive cast, Daniels presents an intriguing option for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on his dual-threat capabilities and offensive potential.
Tier 4
11.Brock Purdy QB – SF (9), +0 vs. ECR
Brock Purdy demonstrated exceptional prowess as a pocket passer last season, securing the QB8 spot in points per game a remarkable achievement. His success stemmed largely from maintaining a high touchdown rate of over 7%, translating to 31 passing touchdowns over the course of the season, a testament to his consistency and efficiency.
Heading into the upcoming season, Purdy benefits from continuity with his offensive weapons and a system influenced by Shanahan’s strategic playbook. With a full offseason to develop rather than rehab, coupled with potential increased passing volume in the offense, Purdy is poised to surpass the 30-touchdown mark again. Historically, quarterbacks who achieve this milestone typically finish within the top 12 in fantasy, underscoring Purdy’s strong fantasy potential.
Despite ranking 20th in pass attempts and 31st in pace of play last year, Purdy’s efficiency stands out, highlighted by his third-place ranking in fantasy points per dropback (.65) and second-place in red zone completion percentage. These metrics suggest that his impressive touchdown rate is sustainable moving forward. While his profile may not boast top 3 potential due to talent limitations, Purdy’s ability to efficiently orchestrate the offense and minimize mistakes offers one of the highest floors among starting quarterbacks. Fantasy managers can expect Purdy to deliver consistent, reliable production as a QB option with significant upside heading into the new season.
12.Jordan Love QB – GB (10), -2 vs. ECR
Jordan Love had a promising debut season as a starter, finishing as the QB5 in fantasy football. Despite this achievement, it’s important to note that 2023 saw the lowest fantasy points scoring average among the top 10 quarterbacks since 2017. While Love’s 19.4 points per game is solid for a fantasy starting QB in any season, historically, it would typically position him more as a QB8 to QB12.
This year, the quarterback landscape appears deep on paper for fantasy drafts, reducing the urgency to select quarterbacks ranked QB8 or lower early. There’s a sizable group of QBs projecting around 4000 yards passing and 30-plus touchdowns, including players like Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff, who are being drafted behind Love.
What sets Love apart and justifies his slightly higher ranking is his added value as a rusher, having posted 257 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns last season, a dimension not as prevalent among his peers in the same draft range. However, my ranking deviates slightly from ADP as I lean towards drafting the upside of Kyler Murray’s rushing ability and Dak Prescott’s potential for over 600 passing attempts. Personally, I prefer to see a bit more consistency and a larger sample size from Love before fully endorsing him as an automatic top 10 QB. His season last year was a tale of two halves: QB17 from weeks 1-10 and QB4 from weeks 11 onwards, coinciding with Aaron Jones’ return and Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s effective play-action play calling. If Josh Jacobs can replicate this formula, Love’s fantasy outlook could be further bolstered.
Tier 5
13.Jared Goff QB – DET (5), +1 vs. ECR
Over the past two seasons, Jared Goff has consistently delivered his best performances, throwing for 29 and 30 passing touchdowns respectively, and around 4,500 yards each year. Supported by a top-tier offensive line, talented weapons across the offense, and the guidance of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Goff has proven to be a reliable option for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to draft a quarterback later in their drafts or as a streaming option.
Goff’s steady production makes him a solid choice for those seeking a low-end QB1 to high-end QB2 floor week after week. However, despite his impressive passing numbers, he has typically hovered around the QB15 to QB16 range in fantasy points per game. This is partly due to his lack of spike weeks and minimal rushing production. Typically totaling no more than 108 rushing yards in a season.
Given his consistent but moderate upside, Goff is ideally paired with a higher-risk, higher-reward quarterback in fantasy drafts. This strategy allows fantasy managers to balance out their lineup with steady performances from Goff while potentially reaping the benefits of a more volatile QB1 option.
14.Caleb Williams QB – CHI (7), +1 vs. ECR
As a rookie, it’s important to temper expectations for Caleb Williams, despite his promising situation surrounded by strong talent across all skill positions. Comparing him to CJ Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever with over 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns on about 33 pass attempts per game, sets a realistic benchmark for Williams under Waldron’s play calling.
Where Williams stands out is his rushing ability, having accumulated nearly 1,000 yards on the ground over his collegiate career. This adds a valuable fantasy dimension, potentially contributing an extra point or two per game, with a reasonable projection of around 300 rushing yards. Williams’ aggressive playing style complements the weapons at his disposal, evident from his college performance where he ranked 5th in deep passing yards last season.
Currently drafted as QB13 in season-long leagues, optimism about his potential should be balanced with an acknowledgment that he’s not in the top 12 quarterbacks, minimizing risk as a late-round pick. This positions him well as a potential upside QB2 or part of a strategic streaming strategy in fantasy football drafts.
15.Trevor Lawrence QB – JAC (12), +1 vs. ECR
It was disappointing for fantasy owners who drafted Lawrence expecting a breakout, only to see him finish as QB17 on a points-per-game basis last season. However, this downturn has positioned Lawrence as a potential sleeper candidate this year, valued closer to his floor.
Despite the underwhelming fantasy finish, several metrics suggest optimism for a Lawrence breakout in 2024. He ranked 8th in pass attempts with 564, indicating ample volume, and was 5th in deep ball attempts, highlighting his desire to create big plays down the field. Operating in the league’s 2nd fastest pace of play offense further supports his fantasy potential.
Additionally, Lawrence contributed value with his legs, ranking 9th in carries (70) and rushing yards (339) among quarterbacks. The Jaguars’ offseason moves also signal potential improvement for Lawrence. Moving on from Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, they added 1st-round pick Brian Thomas and free agent Gabe Davis. Thomas, known for his explosiveness, was a standout in deep catches and yards in college. Meanwhile, Davis proved efficient in the red zone with a high touchdown rate and strong metrics in average depth of target (ADOT).
These upgrades in the receiving corps could enhance Lawrence’s upside with more dynamic playmakers around him in a vertical passing game scheme. As Lawrence enters his fourth season with renewed offensive weapons and promising metrics, fantasy managers might find him a compelling value pick with significant breakout potential in 2024.
16.Tua Tagovailoa QB – MIA (6), -3 vs. ECR
Tua Tagovailoa presents a curious case in fantasy football, where initial perceptions may not align with a deeper analysis of his performance. Last season, he was drafted as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 and ended up finishing as QB9 overall, slightly exceeding his ADP expectations on the surface. However, a closer look reveals that Tua was more of a mixed bag for fantasy managers.
On a points-per-game basis, Tua ranked QB19 overall last year. Notably, during the critical stretch from Week 9 the heart of the fantasy football season, he plummeted to QB29 in points per game. This inconsistency underscored the frustration many fantasy teams experienced, despite the offensive weapons surrounding him and the optimistic preseason outlook.
Initially, Tua showed promise with a strong start where he ranked as QB7 in points per game. Yet, his career statistics reveal a stark contrast between his performance in the first half of the season versus the latter half. Before November, he averages 257 passing yards and 1.85 touchdowns per game, but these numbers dip significantly to 229 yards and 1.41 touchdowns per game in the second half of the season. This trend makes Tua a potential “sell high” candidate before November, as his fantasy output tends to decline as the season progresses.
Fantasy managers should take heed of these patterns when considering Tua’s value, ensuring they manage their expectations and roster accordingly throughout the fantasy football year.
As you prepare for the draft, consider the narratives behind each quarterback: Allen’s adaptability amid roster changes, Jackson’s consistent dual-threat dominance, Mahomes’ rebound potential, and the promise of rookies like Daniels and Williams. Whether you prioritize experience, upside, or a calculated blend of both, I hope these insights provide a roadmap to navigate the complexities of quarterback selection. As the season unfolds, may your quarterback choices bring you closer to championship aspirations, hopefully helped by these rankings.
If you wish to see my full rankings find my name (Daniel Mader) on Expert Consensus Rankings on FantasyPros.
