The realm of fantasy football running backs is dynamic and nuanced, particularly within the rankings of 13 to 24. This tier represents a mix of seasoned veterans and emerging talents, each with their narrative and potential impact on fantasy rosters. From established workhorses like Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara to rising stars such as Isiah Pacheco and Kenneth Walker III, understanding their historical performances, injury risks, and projected roles is crucial for fantasy managers aiming to build competitive rosters. This analysis delves into the complexities and opportunities presented by these running backs, offering insights to guide strategic decisions during the upcoming fantasy football draft season.
Tier 4
13.Joe Mixon RB – HOU (14), +0 vs. ECR
Joe Mixon’s career has been defined by volume and the opportunity to thrive in a potent offensive system. Signing a three-year, $37 million contract with the Texans solidified his role as a bellcow back. Despite averaging around 4 yards per carry, nearing 28 years old, and ranking 41st in breakaway run rate, Mixon has shown remarkable reliability. He’s missed only three games in the past three seasons, consistently maintaining a 66-75% carry share and an 11-13% target share. Moreover, he’s consistently scored at least 9 total touchdowns each year and hasn’t finished lower than RB12 in points per game over that span. These factors suggest that Mixon may be slightly undervalued in fantasy circles given his consistent production and role within a reliable offense.
14.Isiah Pacheco RB – KC (6), -4 vs. ECR
Pacheco’s 2023 season was marked by significant fantasy production, finishing as the RB15 in points per game. His emergence as a potential workhorse was evident from Week 9 onwards, where he consistently commanded a substantial share of team carries and maintained a respectable target share. By Week 13, he had risen to RB8 in points per game, demonstrating his effectiveness both as a runner and receiver within the offense. From an advanced metrics standpoint, Pacheco’s performance was above average, particularly in red zone situations where he ranked among the top in terms of touches, resulting in 9 total touchdowns.
However, concerns arise due to his running style, which contributed to shoulder and back issues that sidelined him for three games, including the crucial fantasy playoff stretch. Looking ahead, Pacheco’s fantasy outlook is tempered by these injury risks and questions about his red zone involvement. Kansas City’s tendency to rely heavily on Mahomes in scoring situations may limit Pacheco’s volume, especially considering the team’s upgraded receiving weapons.
Previous to 2023, the Chiefs have been a pass-heavy team inside the opponent 10-yard line compared to the rest of the league and still were last year. However, the rush attempts in this area for the team increased from 38% in 2022 to 42% in 2023. Given these factors, Pacheco is viewed as a solid mid-level RB2 in fantasy rankings. While he demonstrated significant upside last season, concerns over injury and potential volume limitations compared to higher-ranked backs suggest a cautious approach when evaluating his fantasy value for the upcoming season.
15.Alvin Kamara RB – NO (12), +2 vs. ECR
Alvin Kamara proved to be a significant value in fantasy football drafts in 2023, finishing as a top 5 RB in points per game despite being drafted much lower due to a suspension. While his efficiency metrics on the ground declined, with rankings such as 45th in true yards per carry and 27th in evaded tackles, Kamara remained a pivotal player in the Saints’ offense. His 87 targets (2nd most among RBs despite missing 4 games) and strong yards per route run (4th best) underscored his continued effectiveness as a pass-catching threat.
Heading into the 2024 season, Kamara’s role as the lead back in New Orleans remains secure, especially with a coach like Kubiak who historically features a lead back in his offensive schemes. This continuity bodes well for Kamara’s fantasy outlook, particularly in PPR leagues where his receiving prowess elevates his value. Like Rachaad White, Kamara is viewed as a top-end RB2 with the potential for low-end RB1 production due to his expected volume and involvement in the passing game. With Kamara’s established role and his rapport with a quarterback who favors check-downs, fantasy managers can expect him to continue delivering solid production, making him a reliable cornerstone for their teams in the upcoming season.
16.Kenneth Walker III RB – SEA (10), +0 vs. ECR
Walker maintained consistent performance levels despite the addition of Zach Charbonnet to the team. He ended the season as the RB20 in points per game, a slight drop from RB16 the previous year. While his yards per carry remained modest at 4.1, Walker excelled in evading tackles, ranking 3rd in the league. His efficiency in the passing game also saw improvement, with his yards per route run increasing from 0.78 to 1.43, which ranked him 14th among running backs.
Looking ahead, the utilization of Walker and Charbonnet under the new coaching regime will be crucial. Last season, Walker dominated the rush attempts with a split of 67% compared to Charbonnet’s 34%, while both shared an equal 8% target share. However, challenges remain, particularly with the team’s offensive line ranking poorly at 31st according to PFF. Despite these factors, Walker’s ability to break tackles and make big plays ensures that he maintains a solid floor as a mid-level RB2 in fantasy football. His knack for evading defenders adds value, providing fantasy owners with reliable production despite potential concerns about offensive line performance and the distribution of carries between him and Charbonnet.
Tier 5
17.Aaron Jones RB – MIN (6), +3 vs. ECR
Jones has found an ideal situation to maintain his fantasy relevance and potentially even exceed expectations. The key consideration with Jones has always been his availability, as he has a history of missing several games each season, including six games last year. At 29 years old, he’s entered what is typically considered the “post-prime” phase for running backs. Despite these concerns, there are reasons for optimism surrounding Jones. Upon his return from injury last season, he performed admirably, ranking as the RB16 from weeks 15 to 18. Moreover, he displayed impressive efficiency metrics, ranking 14th in yards per touch and 2nd in yards per route run among running backs during that span.
Under head coach Kevin O’Connell, there may be a tendency to feature Jones with more volume than he received in Green Bay. O’Connell initially leaned heavily on lead back Alexander Mattison during the first six weeks of the season, giving him 75% of the carries. However, a decline in Mattison’s performance eventually led to a change in approach. Given these factors, Jones presents a solid floor and considerable upside at his current average draft position (ADP) as a mid-level RB2. Fantasy managers should monitor his health closely, but if he can stay on the field, Jones has the potential to deliver reliable production in the upcoming season.
18.Raheem Mostert RB – MIA (6), +7 vs. ECR
Raheem Mostert has shown significant productivity on a points-per-game basis, finishing as the RB3 overall despite not playing a full season. His performance was reinforced by signing a two-year, $9 million contract extension, solidifying his role as the lead back for his team. Mostert averaged 15 opportunities per game in weeks when Achane was active, underscoring his status as the primary ball carrier.
Despite approaching 32 years old, Mostert boasts a relatively light career workload with only 796 touches, significantly fewer than many younger running backs like Josh Jacobs, who has accumulated 1559 touches by age 26. This lower workload mitigates concerns about Mostert’s age-related wear and tear, as well as the historical perception of him being injury-prone. In the past two seasons, Mostert has missed only three games, further diminishing concerns about his durability compared to other running backs. Given his lead role in terms of volume and productivity, Mostert’s draft value appears to be a steal, particularly when he is being drafted as a high-end RB3.
19.De’Von Achane RB – MIA (6), -8 vs. ECR
Achane demonstrated explosive potential during the 11 games he played last season, despite averaging just 12.8 opportunities per game. In those games, he posted video game-like numbers, ranking as the RB4 overall on a per-game basis. However, several metrics suggest this level of performance may be unsustainable. His 7.77 yards per carry and 7.8% touchdown rate are particularly noteworthy, as they are unusually high and unlikely to be replicated consistently.
One significant issue is Achane’s size, which proved problematic for his availability, as he missed 7 games due to lower body injuries. Upon his return later in the season, his production normalized, as he ranked as the RB19 on a points-per-game basis from weeks 12 to 18, highlighting the volatility in his performance when not producing explosive outings back-to-back. These factors underscore the need to temper expectations regarding Achane’s average draft position (ADP). It’s worth noting that he is currently ranked 20 spots ahead of his teammate Raheem Mostert in ADP, which may not accurately reflect their respective roles and potential contributions.
20.James Cook RB – BUF (12), -5 vs. ECR
In 2023, James Cook emerged as a fantasy force, finishing the season as the RB19 in .5PPR points per game. During Weeks 11 to 18 under Joe Brady’s coaching, Cook soared to RB11 in points per game, maintaining a pace of 347 opportunities and 1773 total yards over a hypothetical 17-game span. Despite these impressive yardage figures, Cook’s touchdown production was limited, with only one rushing touchdown and three receiving touchdowns during this pivotal eight-game stretch.
His efficiency near the goal line was hampered by a low conversion rate on carries inside the 10 yards, posing a challenge for his fantasy upside heading into 2024. Organizational comments hinting at a role for Ray Davis in short-yardage situations further complicate Cook’s touchdown potential moving forward. Fantasy managers will closely monitor whether Cook can maintain his yardage output while improving his scoring efficiency in the upcoming season.
Tier 6
21.David Montgomery RB – DET (5), -3 vs. ECR
In the latter half of the season, despite Gibbs beginning to share the workload, Montgomery remained a solid fantasy option, finishing as RB11 in total points and RB18 in points per game. Their roles complement each other well within the offense, highlighting their potential to both thrive as top 20 running backs. With scoring opportunities abundant and their ability to contribute effectively, Montgomery and Gibbs form a formidable duo capable of delivering consistent fantasy production.
22.Zamir White RB – LV (10), +0 vs. ECR
White emerged as the primary starter for the Raiders in the final stretch of the season, impressively finishing as the RB13 on a points-per-game basis from Weeks 15 to 18. Despite running behind a struggling offensive line, he showcased his ability with a solid 16th ranking in breakaway run rate. Projecting forward, it’s unlikely White will maintain the same pace of over 400 opportunities he saw in those four starts, especially given his limited receiving skills. However, a substantial workload of around 350 opportunities, contingent on his health, seems plausible.
Whether the Raiders’ offense improves to create more scoring chances remains uncertain. With a slightly upgraded offensive line and anticipated volume, White presents a solid floor as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3. Yet, caution is warranted due to the small sample size of his performance. While promising, relying heavily on volume, given his average metrics, remains key to his fantasy value. Nonetheless, his current ADP reflects his potential ceiling to outperform, especially if he maintains efficiency similar to his 4.73 yards per carry during his brief starting stint.
23.Najee Harris RB – PIT (9), +0 vs. ECR
Najee Harris enters a pivotal season with the Steelers after a strong finish in 2023, ranking as the RB9 from Weeks 9 to 18. Under Arthur Smith’s direction, the Steelers figure to commit more to their running game. Last season Harris’s increased workload from 14.5 opportunities per game in the first half of the season to 19.2 opportunities per game from Week 9 onward led to Harris establishing himself as a fantasy threat. Smith’s preference for utilizing traditional running backs, as seen with Allgeier’s involvement in the red zone, bodes well for Harris. Additionally, with the Steelers declining his 5th-year option, Harris enters a contract year poised to prove his value, potentially leading to a high-volume role without concerns about workload management.
24.James Conner RB – ARI (11), -3 vs. ECR
Conner’s 2023 season was a tale of two halves, highlighting both his potential and limitations in fantasy football. Despite finishing as the RB9 in points per game, his early-season struggles and missed games left him ranked significantly lower in the first half of the year. His resurgence from Week 13 onwards, where he remarkably claimed the RB1 spot, salvaged his fantasy production.
Historically, Conner’s durability concerns loom large as he enters his age 29 season with consecutive years of missed games. With his contract set to expire, there’s uncertainty about his workload sustainability, especially with promising rookie Trey Benson waiting in the wings. The Cardinals’ long-term plans and draft investment in Benson suggest a shift towards the future, potentially diminishing Conner’s role as the season progresses. While he’s likely to start the season as the lead back, fantasy managers must monitor Benson’s development closely, as he could emerge as a significant threat to Conner’s workload and fantasy relevance in 2024.
In the landscape of fantasy football, the running backs ranked from 13 to 24 offer a blend of reliability and upside that can significantly influence fantasy rosters. Veterans like Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara bring proven track records and high-volume roles within their respective offenses, making them cornerstone picks in fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, emerging talents such as Isiah Pacheco and Kenneth Walker III provide intriguing opportunities with their potential for increased roles and productivity. However, navigating the risks associated with injuries and workload distribution is paramount. As fantasy managers prepare for the 2024 season, these insights into the strengths and challenges of each player will be invaluable in constructing resilient and competitive fantasy football teams.
