Navigating the running back landscape in fantasy football requires a keen understanding of player dynamics, team strategies, and potential breakout candidates. In this analysis, we delve into the latest updates and projections for several key running backs heading into the 2024 season. From established stars adjusting to new teams like D’Andre Swift with the Chicago Bears to promising rookies like Jonathon Brooks in Carolina, each player’s situation and potential impact on fantasy rosters are carefully examined. With insights into contract signings, injury comebacks, and offensive system changes, fantasy managers gain crucial insights to make informed decisions in their drafts and throughout the season.
25.Tony Pollard RB – TEN (5), +1 vs. ECR Pollard’s recent three-year, $21.75 million contract with $10.9 million guaranteed signals a significant commitment from his team, positioning him as their primary backfield option. Despite finishing as the RB22 in points per game last season, Pollard left fantasy owners disappointed, especially given his RB6 ADP and underwhelming goal-line execution.
Part of his struggles can be attributed to returning from a broken fibula suffered in the previous postseason, impacting his efficiency and production. Dropping from a career 5 yards per carry to 4, and ranking poorly in yards per touch and breakaway run rate, Pollard’s performance suffered. While he’s expected to split carries with Tyjae Spears, the extent of this split may be overstated given Pollard’s potential to regain his explosiveness with improved health. If Pollard can return to form, he has the capability to exceed his current ADP and reassert himself as a strong RB2 option in fantasy leagues.
Tier 7
26.D’Andre Swift RB – CHI (7), -2 vs. ECR Swift’s recent signing with the Chicago Bears marks a pivotal moment in his career, securing a three-year, $24 million deal with $15.3 million guaranteed-significant figures in the world of running backs. His move to Chicago follows a season where he posted career-best rushing numbers, exceeding 1,000 yards for the first time while maintaining a steady 4.6 yards per carry average.
Despite these gains, Swift saw a downturn in his receiving game, with only 49 targets and six total touchdowns, his lowest to date. With a shift to a less scramble-heavy quarterback system, Swift anticipates a return to his previous level of involvement in the passing game. Concerns linger over Chicago’s offensive line, but Swift’s ability to break tackles effectively, averaging one every 10.9 carries, underscores his reliability. Despite being overshadowed at times, Swift’s efficiency, combined with his lead role and potential for increased passing game contributions, positions him as a promising asset for the Bears.
27.Javonte Williams RB – DEN (14), +3 vs. ECR Williams appears to have faced challenges due to returning early from a multi-ligament ACL injury, impacting his explosiveness throughout last season. Initially not expected to play, his early return likely hindered his recovery process, contributing to a disappointing 3.6 yards per carry in a struggling offense. Despite these setbacks, Williams showed promise with a solid 9th ranking in breakaway run rate and 22nd in evaded tackles, suggesting potential improvement with a better offense around him. His durability was commendable, playing in all 16 games and averaging 17 opportunities per game, while also maintaining a solid 13% target share.
With the Broncos historically favoring a run-first approach, especially beneficial with a rookie QB, Williams’ volume alone supports his current ADP. If he regains his pre-injury form, Williams could significantly exceed expectations in fantasy football this season.
28.Jaylen Warren RB – PIT (9), -1 vs. ECR The hype surrounding Warren entering this season might need tempering, especially when comparing him to Cordarrelle Patterson’s usage under Arthur Smith’s coaching. Patterson’s success in 2021 and part of 2022 was largely due to unique circumstances such as Mike Davis’s decline and Patterson’s versatility in filling multiple roles. In 2022, Patterson’s role shifted after injury, allowing rookie Tyler Allgeier to step in effectively. Smith’s tendency to use a split backfield scenario similar to Patterson and Allgeier’s dynamic in 2022 could be what Warren hopes to replicate. During that period, Patterson commanded a 30% team carry share and an 11% team target share, making him a viable flex option. Warren’s potential hinges on whether he can secure a similar role in Smith’s system this season.
29.Brian Robinson Jr. RB – WAS (14), -1 vs. ECR Robinson finished last season as the RB21 in points per game in .5PPR leagues, showcasing his ability as a reliable power back who also contributed in the passing game with 49 targets and 4 receiving touchdowns. Despite splitting snaps with Gibson nearly evenly, Robinson’s role is not expected to diminish. Kingsbury has a history of favoring his primary early-down backs, evident from Kenyan Drake’s RB4 finish in the second half of 2019 and subsequent strong performances from James Conner in 2020 and 2021 while sharing the workload with Chase Edmonds. This trend suggests that Robinson, given his role and Kingsbury’s coaching tendencies, could see significant opportunities, especially in goal-line situations, alongside Ekeler.
30.Jonathon Brooks RB – CAR (11), +2 vs. ECR Brooks emerged as one of the top running backs in this year’s NFL draft class, despite recovering from an ACL injury suffered last year. Unlike some similar injuries, his was isolated to the ACL, promising a simpler recovery process with an earlier return to form. Currently on track to be cleared for training camp, Brooks faces a learning curve entering his rookie season due to missed offseason programs. While he may not start Week 1, the Panthers’ significant investment in him-drafting him in the second round-suggests he’ll ascend to the lead back role by season’s end. Praised for his three-down skill set, Brooks excels in both running and receiving, though pass protection is an area for growth. He lacks a second gear but displays toughness by ranking 20th in missed tackles forced. Fantasy managers should view Brooks as an RB3 with potential, understanding his likely impact may grow significantly in the latter half of the season rather than immediately in September.
31.Nick Chubb RB – CLE (10), +7 vs. ECR iven Chubb’s recent injury history and the severity of his ACL tear, the outlook for his fantasy performance in the upcoming season is uncertain and potentially limited. Medical experts, including Dr. Brian Scott, have pointed out that Chubb’s injury involves multiple ligaments, which typically necessitates a longer recovery period. Instead of the usual 9 months, this type of injury often requires closer to 12 months for a full return to form. Considering Chubb’s age-he will turn 29 during the season-and his history with previous ACL issues dating back to college, there are significant concerns about his ability to regain his previous level of performance. As a result, fantasy managers should approach drafting Chubb with caution, viewing him more as a flex option rather than a high-end RB1 or RB2 this year.
32.Devin Singletary RB – NYG (11), -1 vs. ECR Devin Singletary’s resurgence with the Texans last season showcased his ability to handle a lead role effectively. From Week 9 onward, he ranked as the RB19 in points per game in .5PPR formats, projecting to a solid 17-game pace. Singletary, often viewed as a platoon back due to his size, has consistently delivered when given the opportunity, notably under Brian Daboll, who coached him previously in Buffalo. In 2019 and 2021, during stints as a starter under Daboll, Singletary demonstrated his fantasy potential, finishing as the RB28 and RB4 respectively in points per game. With Daboll now in New York, there’s optimism that Singletary could once again thrive, especially given the Giants’ lack of established depth behind him. Tyrone Tracy and Eric Gray, both unproven with low draft capital, provide little competition. For fantasy drafts, Singletary presents an intriguing option as a volume-based RB3 with potential for low-end RB2 production, making him a strategic pick for those employing a zero RB strategy.
Tier 8
33.Chase Brown RB – CIN (12), +4 vs. ECR It seems I may be in the minority, but I favor Brown in this backfield, which is why I rank him at RB33, ahead of ADP and four spots ahead of Moss in my rankings. Standing at 5’9″ and 215 lbs, Brown possesses a leaner frame compared to a more compact build, which may limit his chances of overtaking a lead role, especially in early and short-yardage situations. Last season, he struggled inside the 5-yard line, failing to convert on any of his six attempts. Brown’s upside appears capped with a potential 50/50 split with Moss at best. However, from weeks 13 to 18 last season, Brown started to carve out a significant role alongside Joe Mixon, securing 27% of team carries and a 7% target share. This involvement, combined with Brown’s explosiveness, made him a viable flex option, finishing as RB35 during that period. As the returning incumbent in the Bengals’ backfield and with minimal resources invested in Zack Moss, Brown has a pathway to push for an equal split. The key for Brown will be improving his pass protection during the offseason to fend off Moss and showcase his explosiveness as a receiver.
34.Jerome Ford RB – CLE (10), +5 vs. ECR Jerome Ford’s role in the Browns’ backfield, especially in the event of Nick Chubb’s absence due to injury, is pivotal to consider for fantasy managers. Last season, Ford took over as the lead back from Weeks 3 to 17, finishing as the RB20 in points per game, just ahead of Bijan Robinson during that stretch. Despite his solid performance, Ford did not handle a bell-cow workload, sharing carries with Kareem Hunt. He managed to score 9 total touchdowns, primarily through receiving, but saw limited usage inside the 5-yard line compared to Hunt. With D’Onta Foreman now also in the mix, known for his potential to deliver high fantasy value with significant carries, particularly in roles similar to Hunt’s, Foreman’s arrival could diminish Ford’s fantasy relevance. This is especially true given Foreman’s historical lack of involvement in the passing game.
35.Tyjae Spears RB – TEN (5), -2 vs. ECR Spears has emerged as a noteworthy fantasy asset despite being officially listed as a backup on his team’s depth chart. His impressive metrics from last season include ranking 5th in breakaway run rate, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and receiving the 9th most targets among running backs with 70. These numbers illustrate Spears’ efficiency and involvement in both the running and passing game, making him a viable low-level flex play with significant upside as a handcuff to Tony Pollard. Contrary to the narrative of a full-blown committee, the reality may see Spears receiving a substantial share of opportunities, albeit not on par with Pollard due to the latter’s significant contract and established role. Spears’ skill set, similar to Pollard’s, suggests he’ll be part of a consistent rotation managed by the coaching staff rather than carving out a distinct role. With a potential split in opportunities around 55-60% for Pollard and 45-40% for Spears, caution is advised against overdrafting Spears, but his upside remains considerable for fantasy managers willing to invest.
36.Trey Benson RB – ARI (11), +4 vs. ECR Benson’s arrival in Arizona signals a potential changing of the guard in the Cardinals’ backfield. As a third-round draft pick, he brings impressive athleticism and a versatile skill set, highlighted by his 4.39 40-yard dash speed and consistent college production. With Conner’s injury history and contract situation suggesting a transition phase, Benson stands poised to seize opportunities in both rushing and receiving roles. While he’ll need to refine his pass protection to earn consistent playing time, Benson’s abilities as a runner and his knack for scoring in the red zone make him a compelling future option for Arizona. Fantasy managers should monitor his development closely, as Benson has the tools to potentially supplant Conner and emerge as a significant fantasy asset in the Cardinals’ offense.
37.Blake Corum RB – LAR (6), +5 vs. ECR Blake Corum, a Day 2 pick, brings substantial potential to the table after consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Michigan, even following a full meniscus tear. His style resembles Kyren Williams’ with strong vision and evasive abilities between the tackles, though Corum is slightly heavier at 205 lbs compared to Williams’ 194 lbs. Corum is expected to serve as a direct backup to Williams, elevating his fantasy value into the RB4 tier at minimum. While some speculate Corum could even be more talented than Williams from day one, his on-field performance remains untested. However, Corum’s athletic profile surpasses Williams’, although Williams had a lackluster combine compared to other NFL starting running backs. Sean McVay has demonstrated a willingness to feature a single primary back once trust is established. He showcased this approach with Todd Gurley for years, then with Cam Akers in the latter half of 2022, and most recently with Kyren Williams last season. Despite moving away from Akers relatively quickly due to off-field issues, it seems improbable McVay would do the same with Williams unless injury intervenes, especially considering Williams’ exceptional season following Gurley’s tenure.
As fantasy football draft season approaches, the landscape of running backs offers a diverse array of choices, from seasoned veterans to exciting newcomers. Tony Pollard’s contract extension signals renewed confidence from his team despite challenges in his past season’s performance, while D’Andre Swift’s move to Chicago presents new opportunities in a revamped offensive scheme. Rookies like Jonathon Brooks and Blake Corum bring fresh talent and potential breakout capabilities, adding layers to the decision-making process for fantasy managers. Whether drafting for immediate impact or future potential, understanding each running back’s role, injury recovery, and team dynamics is crucial for building a competitive roster. Stay informed, adjust strategies as news develops, and leverage these insights to craft a championship-caliber fantasy team in 2024.
