As fantasy football enthusiasts prepare for the upcoming season, the top-tier wide receivers emerge as pivotal assets in drafting strategies. These players not only boast exceptional talent but also benefit from favorable team dynamics and consistent quarterback support. From CeeDee Lamb’s commanding role in Dallas’s offense to Ja’Marr Chase’s potential adjustments in Cincinnati, each wideout offers a blend of statistical prowess and strategic insights that fantasy managers must consider closely. Understanding their past performances and projected roles is essential in making informed decisions to build a competitive roster for the 2024 season.
Tier 1
1.CeeDee Lamb WR – DAL (7), +0 vs. ECR
CeeDee Lamb stands poised to potentially benefit more than any other fantasy asset this season due to the Cowboys’ lack of additions to their running game or other receiving options. Entering a contract year, Lamb should have ample opportunity to accumulate impressive stats. Coming off a WR1 finish last season with an impressive 181 targets, Lamb is expected to maintain his significant role in the offense, with a team-leading 30% target share anticipated for 2024.
His versatility in lining up across various formations, including his substantial slot presence (ranked 4th in slot routes run last season), makes him a challenging matchup for defenses, often avoiding shadow coverage. Historically, it’s uncommon for a WR1 from the previous season to repeat as the top fantasy receiver the following year, with Antonio Brown in 2014 and 2015 being the only example in the past decade. However, Lamb’s situation appears uniquely favorable for him to potentially achieve this feat.
2.Ja’Marr Chase WR – CIN (12), +1 vs. ECR
In 2023, Ja’Marr Chase faced some challenges that tempered his fantasy output, particularly during the six games when he didn’t have Joe Burrow. Despite this, he still managed to finish as the WR13 on a points-per-game basis. For those who drafted him as a top pick, it may have felt underwhelming, but Chase demonstrated a solid floor that prevents catastrophic outcomes. With Burrow, Chase’s pace last season projected him as the WR4 overall, highlighting his potential when paired with the Bengals’ starting quarterback. Conversely, when Jake Browning filled in, Chase’s production dipped significantly, illustrating his dependence on Burrow’s presence. During this period, Chase was the WR37 on a points-per-game basis.
Looking ahead to this summer, one key aspect to monitor is how the Bengals adjust their usage of Chase. With Tyler Boyd no longer in the lineup, there’s speculation that Cincinnati might deploy Chase more frequently from the slot in their base three-wide receiver sets, akin to how CeeDee Lamb is utilized in Dallas. This strategic shift could potentially exploit more favorable matchups for Chase, leveraging his ability to generate yards after the catch (YAC). Throughout the league, defenses increasingly employ deep Cover 3 zones to mitigate big offensive plays, which has affected Chase since his rookie year. His yards per target have decreased from 11.2 to 7.8 and 8.4 over the past two seasons. Utilizing Chase more from the slot could mitigate these challenges and potentially propel him back into the upper echelon of fantasy wide receivers.
3.Amon-Ra St. Brown WR – DET (5), +1 vs. ECR
Amon-Ra St. Brown is fresh off a 4-year, $120 million contract extension with $35.3 million guaranteed. He has solidified himself as a safe and elite option. In back-to-back seasons, he has commanded a 28% target share or better, ranked in the top 8 in red zone targets, and shown continuous improvement in yards after catch (YAC), culminating in a 2nd place ranking in overall YAC yards last season. Despite the emergence of Gibbs and LaPorta, St. Brown has only seen his workload increase in the fast-paced Detroit offense.
4.Justin Jefferson WR – MIN (6), +1 vs. ECR
While it’s true that having Sam Darnold or a rookie QB starting might limit Justin Jefferson’s potential to be a true WR1 overall candidate, it shouldn’t discourage fantasy managers from considering him as their WR1. Despite the challenges posed by quarterback uncertainty, Jefferson has consistently shown his elite talent and ability to produce at a high level. When Kirk Cousins was absent and Jefferson returned from injury in Weeks 15-18 of the previous season, he demonstrated his elite status by finishing as the WR4 during that span. He was on pace to exceed 2,000 receiving yards, showcasing his ability to thrive even with less favorable quarterback play. Jefferson’s performance in those weeks underscores his exceptional talent and ability to produce fantasy points regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
His skills as a route-runner, his athleticism, and his knack for making big play highlights are why he remains a top-tier option at the wide receiver position in fantasy football. Therefore, while the quarterback situation in Minnesota may raise some concerns, Jefferson’s proven ability to excel under various circumstances makes him a compelling choice as a WR1 in fantasy drafts, supported by his potential to deliver elite production.
5.Tyreek Hill WR – MIA (6), -3 vs. ECR
Hill had a stellar season last year, setting career highs with 171 targets and 1,799 receiving yards. He proved to be a consistent fantasy asset, maintaining his value even as the Dolphins’ offense struggled in the second half of the season from Week 9 onward. During that stretch, he finished as the WR5, showcasing his reliability and playmaking ability. Entering the apex age for wide receivers at 30, Hill has shown no signs of slowing down. There is every reason to believe that he can continue to produce at a high level and remain a cornerstone of the Dolphins’ passing attack.
Tier 2
6.A.J. Brown WR – PHI (5), +0 vs. ECR
Kellen Moore has a track record of maximizing fantasy production from featured wide receivers. In recent seasons, he’s overseen impressive performances from players like Keenan Allen, who finished as WR8 last year despite missing several games, and CeeDee Lamb, who achieved WR6 in 2022 and WR18 in 2021. Additionally, Amari Cooper thrived as WR16 in 2020 and WR8 in 2019 under Moore’s guidance.
AJ Brown, while established as the lead wide receiver, has primarily operated as a perimeter target in Philadelphia, lacking the inside-out versatility he displayed in Tennessee. However, Moore’s reputation for using his top receivers in versatile ways could potentially benefit Brown significantly and mitigate the issues he faced last season. During weeks 13-18 of the previous season, Brown struggled, finishing only as WR40 on a points-per-game basis and failing to score a touchdown during that period. Although the team as a whole experienced a downturn, a more creative utilization of Brown’s skills could have potentially yielded better results. Looking ahead, there’s anticipation that Brown will maintain his status in WR1 territory with the intriguing possibility of increased versatility in his usage under Moore’s system.
7.Garrett Wilson WR – NYJ (12), +0 vs. ECR
Wilson’s potential for a breakout season was thwarted by Aaron Rodgers’ injury last year. Despite ranking 4th in targets among all WRs and recording over 100 receptions, Wilson’s fantasy output was hampered by his remarkably low 6.2 yards per target, the second lowest among WRs with 100 or more targets, and a shortage of touchdowns. Consequently, he finished as the WR39 on a points-per-game basis in .5PPR leagues. Looking ahead, if Rodgers remains a competent QB and can elevate Wilson’s efficiency to just average levels, Wilson has the potential to vault into the top 8 WRs this upcoming season. The assumption here is that improved efficiency, coupled with his substantial target volume, could translate into significantly enhanced fantasy production for Wilson in the upcoming campaign.
8.Puka Nacua WR – LAR (6), +0 vs. ECR
Puka Nacua emerged as one of the most remarkable fantasy stories of the previous season. Selected in the 6th round of the draft, he finished as the WR7 on a points-per-game basis, with much of his success attributed to the injury of Cooper Kupp, which opened up early opportunities for him. Nacua’s performance was impressive across several metrics. He ranked 7th in targets with 159, had a 29% target share (11th), and was exceptional in YAC (yards after catch), ranking 5th. His production was significantly driven by his ability to gain yards after the catch, despite an average ADOT (average depth of target) of just 9.1, placing him 75th in that category. His touchdowns, totaling 6, were not a major factor in his fantasy success, as he was 27th in the position for scores and 20th in red zone targets.
Interestingly, Nacua didn’t fully replicate Kupp’s slot role, lining up in the slot only 28.9% of the time (46th in the league), while Kupp has consistently been in the slot for over 50% of his routes. This suggests that even with a healthy Kupp, Nacua may not see drastic regression, although his overall volume might decrease. When Kupp and Nacua were both on the field from weeks 5-17, Nacua had a 27% target share, slightly edging out Kupp’s 26%. During this period, Nacua was the WR9 while Kupp was the WR21, demonstrating that Nacua could still perform at a high level even with Kupp in the lineup. Without Kupp, Nacua enjoyed a remarkable 32% target share. Given his impressive rookie season and his demonstrated ability to perform well both with and without Kupp, Nacua should be considered a WR1 in upcoming drafts.
While some regression is likely with Kupp’s full return and defenses being more prepared, Nacua’s proven YAC ability is a strong indicator that he can maintain significant fantasy value.
Tier 3
9.Chris Olave WR – NO (12), +1 vs. ECR
Olave concluded last season as the WR21 in points per game, but he left numerous opportunities on the field due to a shaky connection with Carr. Despite ranking 4th in deep ball targets and 3rd in unrealized air yards, Olave faced the challenge of a 72nd-ranked target accuracy, hindering his ability to capitalize on downfield opportunities.
Now entering his third year, Olave has had time to build chemistry with Carr. Moreover, Kubiak, known for effectively featuring his primary WRs, is the new play-caller, and the Saints made no significant additions threatening Olave’s target share. Olave excels in route running, ranking 13th in total routes won and 27th in route win rate, with a respectable 1.71 target separation (40th). His skill set aligns well with Kubiak’s coaching style, evidenced by Kubiak’s role in Justin Jefferson’s stellar 2021 season and Brandon Aiyuk’s efficient performance last year.
With these factors in play, Olave is poised for a breakout in Year 3 and has the potential to establish himself as a top-tier WR.
10.Drake London WR – ATL (12), +2 vs. ECR
Drake London’s inconsistent weekly usage was the most frustrating aspect of his fantasy performance last season. Despite being the standout pass-catching option for the Falcons, London finished as the WR45 on a points-per-game basis, largely due to only commanding a 23% target share. However, this statistic is somewhat skewed given Atlanta’s ranking as the 8th least pass-heavy team in the league last year.
London’s struggles weren’t just a product of scheme; the poor quarterback play also played a significant role. While the Falcons’ decision to draft Penix 8th overall has drawn criticism, it does offer some hope for London, as any improvement at the quarterback position, whether from Cousins or another option should benefit him. Moreover, the McVay offensive system has a strong track record of developing star WRs regardless of whom the McVay coaching disciple is involved.
With all these factors, London is poised to have a breakout season. The only downside is that his potential is widely recognized, meaning fantasy managers will need to draft him near his ceiling as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2.
11.Marvin Harrison Jr. WR – ARI (11), -2 vs. ECR
Harrison has one of the most impressive pedigrees of any rookie WR entering the league since Ja’Marr Chase. With his talent and the favorable situation in Arizona, he has the potential to produce as a WR1 starting in his rookie year. Comparing him to Chase and Jefferson, who both finished in the top 8 of WRs in their rookie seasons, Harrison stands out because he isn’t joining a team with an established WR1 already in place. Jefferson had Adam Thielen and Chase had Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to contend with, whereas the Cardinals’ primary targets are less established, aside from TE Trey McBride.
Given this context, it’s reasonable to expect Harrison to command a 26% or higher target share right away. Unlike many rookie WRs drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft, Harrison also benefits from having an above-average QB throwing him the football. All signs point toward Harrison making a significant impact in fantasy right from the start of his career.
12.Deebo Samuel Sr. WR – SF (9), +4 vs. ECR
Deebo Samuel remains the superior fantasy option between him and Aiyuk, despite Aiyuk’s impressive performances. Deebo finished as WR9 in fantasy points per game last season, receiving 126 opportunities. His versatility as a playmaker is evident, highlighted by his 37 carries throughout the year, despite missing 3 games. This consistent involvement translates to more reliability on a weekly basis compared to Aiyuk, who averaged 6.5 targets per game compared to Deebo’s 8.4 opportunities.
In conclusion, the Tier 1 wide receivers for the upcoming fantasy football season represent a diverse array of talent and opportunity. Whether it’s CeeDee Lamb’s versatility and high-volume role in Dallas, Ja’Marr Chase’s potential to thrive with enhanced slot usage in Cincinnati, or Amon-Ra St. Brown’s reliable target share in Detroit, each player brings unique strengths to the fantasy landscape. Justin Jefferson’s ability to excel regardless of quarterback challenges and Tyreek Hill’s consistent production underscore the reliability and upside present in this tier. Fantasy managers should prioritize these elite wide receivers early in drafts, leveraging their potential to deliver game-changing performances and anchor their teams with top-tier production throughout the 2024 campaign.
