The Philadelphia Eagles are poised for an intriguing 2024 season under the new direction of Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore. This article delves into the team’s dynamic, evaluating the potential fantasy impact of changes in the coaching staff and key players.
Coaching Overview
Nick Sirianni remains a constant at the helm, while Kellen Moore, joining as the new OC, brings a playbook that promises high volume and dynamic play-calling. Last season, Moore’s offense averaged 20.3 points per game with a 59% pass-heavy approach. The heavy pass tendency is partially explainable due to the circumstances of game flow the Chargers faced last season but is considered a natural tendency for Moore.
This begs the question of whether Moore is the right philosophical correction. One aspect of the struggles the Eagles’ offense faced last season was not involving the running backs consistently enough. Too often they were one dimensional placing too much pressure on Jalen Hurts to make plays. Moore’s offense was 24th in team rush attempts last season. This was in line with Moore’s historical tendency except for his final year in Dallas when McCarthy demanded a more balanced approach.
It wasn’t just involvement on the ground that was an issue for the Eagles’ backfield a year ago. D’Andre Swift was heavily underutilized in the receiving game. Moore may not be the answer in this respect either. Last season Austin Ekeler averaged 5.2 targets per game, 1.5 targets less than his career average since becoming a regular starter in 2019. Before that the Cowboys’ backfield only averaged 5 targets per game in 2022.
Those are just a few curious situations that make one wonder if Moore is the right fit to right the ship from a season ago. There are more examples below as we talk about Jalen Hurts and his efficiency.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts is a centerpiece of the discussion. Ranked as QB2 in both ADP and my rankings, Hurts’s performance could hinder on Moore’s pass-heavy approach. With Hurts traditionally performing better with fewer pass attempts, it remains to be seen how this strategy will affect his fantasy output. Throughout his career, there is a significant discrepancy in Jalen’s efficiency when throwing over 31.5 pass attempts compared to under that mark. His QB rating has a gap from 81.1 over 31.5 pass attempts to 91.1 when under 31.5 pass attempts. This has led to nearly a point-per-game difference in fantasy output. He averaged 21.4 fantasy points in games above 31.5 pass attempts and 22.2 fantasy points below that mark.
Despite this, Hurts’s dual-threat capabilities and consistent rushing scoring production keep him at the top of fantasy drafts. He hasn’t had less than 10 rushing touchdowns in any season since becoming a starter. No, I am not worried about Jason Kelce’s retirement leading to the extinction of the ‘push-tush’ or its ability to be regularly effective. Jalen Hurts’s tank-like build deserves tremendous credit for that play’s success, too.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley, transitioning from a tough season with the Giants to a more potent Eagles offense, holds the ADP RB6 and my rank RB5. Despite a drop in yards before contact, 1.9 from 2.5 in 2022, Barkley’s ability to break tackles, 20.4 per carry, and gain yards after contact, 2.0 yards per carry, remains strong. If Barkley can maintain his efficiency in a situation with a supporting cast capable of providing 2.25 yards before contact to its running backs, Barkley could boom.
An emphasis point will be integration into an offense that favors running backs less in the passing game. As stated above Moore has not displayed a strength involving running backs, as a unit, and frankly, the organization has been guilty too averaging only 5.47 targets per game. Barkley alone has averaged 5.35 targets per game throughout his career. Perhaps his sheer talent will shift existing trends, like Christian McCaffrey’s effect in San Francisco.
Well rounded volume will be key as touchdown scoring could remain volatile. 14 of Hurts’s 15 rushing touchdowns came inside the 5-yard line last season. Effectively acting as the team’s goal-line back. Limiting all running backs to 7 rushing touchdowns as a unit. Again, Barkley is on a higher level of talent than any Eagles running back in recent history. It was only 2 years ago that Miles Sanders accrued 13 rushing touchdowns alongside Hurts receiving double-digit touchdowns from within the 5-yard line.
Bottom line, if you are willing to bet the talent of Saquon Barkley is enough for Moore and the Eagles to buck current trends, then the odds of Barkley competing for RB1 overall are as good as anyone.
Wide Receivers
AJ Brown, my WR7, and Devonta Smith are the least affected in terms of their typical fantasy values.
Brown, as the lead receiver, could hope to see more diverse placements on the field under Moore. This would potentially increase his effectiveness after a quieter end to last season. Moore featured both Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb in that capacity successfully. Keenan Allen finished as the WR8 last season, while Lamb finished WR6 in 2022 as the featured weapons under Moore. Brown certainly has the experience of being a versatile formational piece from his days with the Titans. As long as the 5-week touchdown drought Brown experienced from weeks 13 to 18 is corrected, there should be no concerns at his current ADP.
Meanwhile, Smith, at ADP WR22, offers solid value, representing a reliable second option in a high-volume passing offense. The team’s target consolidation around its top pass catchers should continue. Offering Smith a baseline range of 24% to 29% team target share. The volume alone provides a fantasy floor of a WR2. Mix in Smith’s efficiency range of 8.8 to 9.5 yards per target and you get a player poised more than not to outperform ADP.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, holding steady with an ADP of TE13, finds himself consistently in the mix but just outside the elite TE tier due to injury concerns and competition for targets. Goedert has not played a full season since his rookie year and has missed 8 games over the past 2 seasons.
With Brown and Smith commanding significant attention, Goedert’s opportunities are above average for a TE, but his ceiling is capped. It’s worth noting that Moore has a history of involving the TE within the offense. Between Dalton Schultz and Jason Witten, Moore had a TE finish inside the top 12 in three of his four years in Dallas.
Schematic fit and potential upside due to offense and individual talent, Goedert becomes an excellent sleeper pick for those who wait until the back end of their drafts to select TE.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ fantasy prospects are shaped heavily by the integration of Kellen Moore’s offensive philosophy. While there are challenges, particularly in balancing the run game and maximizing the talents of Hurts and Barkley, the potential for high-scoring outings makes key Eagles players top picks in fantasy drafts. As the season approaches, all eyes will be on how these dynamics unfold on the field.
This article was written by Dan Mader @DanMaderFF. Come join Fantasy Football Advice Network for more content discussions. Enjoy previous articles like Fantasy Football Team Profile: Miami Dolphins.
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