The Buffalo Bills have come so close in the past few years. So close to beating the Kansas City Chiefs and making it to the Super Bowl. They always seem to be on the outside just ever so close to crossing over to the other side. The Bills are in a tough spot this offseason. There is turmoil with one of their top stars. There is always the looming showdown with a modern dynasty in the playoffs and the light rumblings of changes to the coach and general manager if they can’t get the Bills over the hump and bring a championship to the long-suffering franchise. Do general manager Brandon Bean and head coach Sean McDermott make big sweeping moves, slight tweaks, or nothing at all as we head towards the 2025 NFL season?
Buffalo Bills Multiverse
Arms Race Timeline
The Buffalo Bills are a perennial Super Bowl favorite. How can they not be with Josh Allen as their quarterback? They have been able to re-tool the other offensive weapons by trading away Stefon Diggs and drafting James Cook and Khalil Shakir. They always seem to be the bridesmaid and not the bride. That seems to come down to just missing that one piece. That other wide receiver who can take over a game. While Shakir is solid he still leaves fans and fantasy managers wanting. The Bills drafted Keon Coleman to hopefully turn into the Alpha of the offense but his maturation might take longer than people want. Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel just haven’t been the answer.
Passing weapons
On this timeline, the Bills go out and make a big splash. They make a big splash in the offseason and trade with another Super Bowl hopeful, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bills trade away draft picks and Dalton Kincaid to acquire wide receiver Tee Higgins. Higgins comes in and instantly makes an impact. Higgins sees 150+ targets. It’s a number that Higgins was on pace for the past two seasons in Cincy and similar numbers to what Diggs saw in his time in Buffalo. Higgins cements himself as a true WR1 for fantasy football. His draft stock rises and is debated to players like A.J. Brown, Marvin Harrison, and Puka Nacua in fantasy drafts.
Khalil Shakir will be a sleeper pick due to his connection with Allen and his ability to secure first downs but his overall numbers drop. He goes from 100 targets down to the 75 range. With Kincaid no longer on the team, Dawson Knox goes back to his 2021 and 2020 numbers. In those years he was TE8 and TE14 for fantasy managers with 9 and 6 touchdowns respectively. He becomes a sleeper tight end on this tightened who should provide utility for fantasy managers.
Ground forces
It’s hard to say Josh Allen gets better considering he has been either the best or second-best fantasy quarterback the past five years. Allen does take a jump in his passing stats while his rushing remains less affected. Allen has under 30 passing touchdowns in the past two seasons. With Higgins now in Western New York Allen’s passing numbers jump to around the 35 touchdown mark and over 4000 yards. Higgins helps keep the interception numbers down which only helps Allen remain a top quarterback option.
James Cook remains on the team despite his social media posts and contract talks. Cooks remains a solid option for fantasy managers. Cook’s touchdown numbers come back down to earth but he is still a solid option. Cook will be looking to have a monster season to ensure his next contract is at the level he wants. He will repeat as a solid RB1 for fantasy football. The Bills probably lean on him more to get the most out of him before he potentially leaves town. The Bills will increase the workload of Ray Davis down the stretch to see what they have and make a solid plan heading into next offseason.
Draft Splash Timeline
The Bills vs James Cook saga on this timeline ends poorly. The Bills end up trading away James Cook due to his desire to get paid $15 million a year. It’s a number that the Bills can not stomach. Instead, the Bills use the draft picks that come back from Cooks and make a big splash at the NFL Draft in Green Bay. The Buffalo Bills take the first wide receiver off the board in Tetairoa McMillian from Arizona. They don’t stop there making fantasy managers happy while they watch the draft on their televisions.
Spreading the Ball Around
This gives the Bills a solid trio of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and McMillian. The Bills have been running an “everyone eats” mentality so who is the “Alpha” will be a hot discussion the rest of the offseason. In reality, they all end up pretty close to one another in targets. McMillian probably has the most yards while Shakir leads in receptions and Coleman is the touchdown guy. Come the end of the season they will all be in the WR3 range for your fantasy team.
Josh Allen remains the same as he has been. With McMillian in the fold, Allen’s numbers jump a little. McMillian takes some time to develop into a superstar but the abilities we see on his college tape translate to being the missing piece in the Bills offense. He will command attention on the outside and pull safeties away from Coleman and Shakir. McMillian’s presence also opens up space over the middle for Dalton Kincaid.
While Kincaid has been a letdown so far for fantasy adding another skilled wide-out opens things up for Kincaid. His overall target number won’t have the upside that we want from our fantasy tight ends but Kincaid should be able to use his after-the-catch skills to produce solid TE2 fantasy numbers,
All the Running Backs Eat
So, with James Cook no longer on the team, the question will be who is the lead back? Ray Davis enters his second year and will get the first shot at being the guy. The “every eats” mentality in the passing game finds its way to the running back room. The Bills currently have two second-round picks and they use one of them to draft a high-end running back. My prediction on this timeline is one of the two Ohio State runningbacks. Either TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins. It could just as easily be one of the other top-backs. In a deep running back draft class there are numerous guys that can fit this role.
Ray Davis projects as more of a goal-line back and not an every-down player. He only once in his five-year college career had over 200 carries. He had three rushing touchdowns in his rookie year. With Josh Allen being such a threat in the red zone and at the goal line, the upside for Davis is limited. The Bills look to score more points than their opponents versus trying to stop them from scoring. They beat them over the top and then pound the rock to put games with the lead.
Insanity Timeline
Albert Einstien reportedly said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. That’s what we see in this timeline of the Bills Multiverse. The Buffalo Bills do the same thing they have done the past few years. They fail to make any big splashes in free agency or the NFL draft. They roll into the 2025 season with Khalil Shakir being the “number one” wide receiver and hope Keon Coleman makes the next jump in his maturation.
same old receivers
The Bills bring back fan favorite Mack Hollins and then sign a wide receiver who hasn’t lived up to the hype or standard they had once in their career. Someone along the lines of Tim Patrick, Darius Slayton, or Diontae Johnson. None of those players, no matter what they did once will have a major impact on fantasy managers. This wide receiver group will produce close to what we saw in 2024. Shakir will lead the Buffalo Bills but for fantasy will be just a low-end wide receiver two. Coleman takes a jump up but probably not more than a flex play most weeks.
Josh Allen doesn’t need a different result and no one who has him in fantasy football wants a different result. As a top-two quarterback in fantasy the past five years perhaps this “insanity” is working. The issue is will it change the season outcomes for the Buffalo Bills? Will they be able to get past the Kansas City Chiefs and reach and potentially win the Super Bowl? The question for fantasy managers will be Dalton Kincaid. He has been less than advertised but has had spike weeks in production. As long as Dawson Knox remains on the roster and continues to excel at pass and run blocking Kincald will lack the snaps and opportunities to be a fantasy stud.
Run by committee
The run game continues its emergence as a big part of the Bills’ offense. James Cook doesn’t repeat his 2024 touchdown numbers but his workload increases and so do his yards. He finally gets over 1500 yards and has around 225 carries. Ray Davis will eat into the red zone and goal-line work. Ty Johnson has a decent role in 2024 but is now going to be a free agent. The Bills could bring him back or swap him for another middling running back like Trey Sermon or Kenneth Gainwell. Someone who has decent pass-catching skills but can also pass-protect.
With Josh Allen still a threat to use his legs on any given play the running backs lose a ton of opportunities. Allen’s rushing numbers have come down slightly over the past two seasons while his production has increased. We see more of the same in 2025. The Bills would love to keep Allen’s rushing attempts under 100 for the season. While they have called less-designed runs Allen knows that he can pick up yardage and first downs with his legs and will often take off if the first two reads aren’t available. With no new weapon to rely on Allen will continue to provide the rushing upside for fantasy managers.
