We get ever closer to the NFL Draft and that means we are that much closer to your fantasy football draft and season. Free agency seems so long ago. There were plenty of big names that inked new deals. Plenty of trades that rocked fantasy values. Here we take a look at some of the lower end signings for quarterbacks and tight ends and how they play into the fantasy value of others.
Kenny Pickett- Cleveland Browns
Winner- Jerome Ford (RB, Clev)
The Browns are in an odd spot this offseason. They had a disastrous 2024 and are on the hook to pay Deshaun Watson a ton of money. That led to the Browns trading for former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett. So, what does the 2025 season look like for the Browns? I expect them to rely more on the running game than the passing game. Currently, that benefits Jerome Ford.
While he didn’t have a great 2024 season, Ford should be in line for lead back duties now that Nick Chubb is no longer with the team. The Browns will probably draft someone, but with so many other needs, it could be later in the weekend. Ford should get halfway back to his 2023 season, when he was RB16.
Loser- Jerry Jeudy (WR, Clev)
With Kenny Pickett in the fold, it looks less likely that the Browns will spend high draft capital on a quarterback. That leaves Pickett and Watson as the possible options. Neither of them bodes well for Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy saw a resurgence with Jameis Winston last year, but he is now in New York, and Jeudy is left in Cleveland.
I don’t expect a ton of great fantasy games from Jeudy, given the quarterbacks. He should still be a solid WR3 for your fantasy team, but the days of him finishing in the top 12 are gone unless something massive changes.
Mason Rudolph- Pittsburgh Steelers
Winner- Jaylen Warren (RB, Pit)
Is Mason Rudolph the Week 1 starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers? At this point, he is the only quarterback on the roster. We still have the NFL draft to go, and all signs point to the Steelers drafting someone early. Either way, it will be an inexperienced guy. That means Jaylen Warren will be in line for a large workload.
Even with the Steelers bringing in DK Metcalf this offseason, it will take time for the passing game to click. Warren should easily see more than the 8 carries a game he averaged last year. It might only be an early-season bump, but enough to provide some early value and wins for fantasy managers.
Loser- George Pickens (WR, Pitt)
Mason Rudolph is not the starting quarterback in the NFL. Yet that scenario isn’t out of the question to start 2025. This doesn’t seem great for wide receiver George Pickens. He has shown frustrations with inaccurate passers who don’t favor his skill set. Pickens is a downfield receiver, which isn’t where Rudolph has success. Rudolph lacks the arm strength and the pocket awareness to allow downfield routes to develop. Pickens will certainly lose work to Metcalf and even more if Rudolph gets the start.
Mac Jones- San Francisco 49ers
Winner- Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
The Rumors of Brandon Aiyuk getting traded seem to be dying down. Aiyuk should be the lead receiver on the 49ers when ever he returns from injury. Bringing in Mac Jones provides a solid backup for Brock Purdy. Its something the 49ers have been missing. They have been hit with numerous injuries every year and depth has been an issue in the past. It cost them the NFC Championship back in 2022.
Mac Jones showed last season that he can support a top-end fantasy wide receiver. While Brandon Aiyuk and Brian Thomas are different styles of receivers, Mac Jones can still get Aiyuk his targets. I expect Aiyuk to get back to being a high-end WR2 for your fantasy team once he comes back from injury.
Loser- Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
It was reported that head coach Kyler Shanahan wanted Mac Jones back in the 2021 draft over Trey Lance. Reports are that management made the trade to get Lance. Now Shanahan gets his guy. Sure, some of the shine is gone from Jones, but he was good in relief of Trevor Lawrence last year.
Brock Purdy has been very good for the 49ers. The question is, do they want to sign him to a long-term and expensive deal. Its been reported that he and the 49ers have been in discussion on a contract extension. With Mac Jones on the team, it could mean some of Purdy’s leverage is gone. If Jones gets a chance to play and does what he did last year, it could be the last time we see Purdy in a 49ers uniform.
Ty Conklin- Los Angeles Chargers
Winner- Ty Conklin (TE, LAC)
Ty Conklin has quietly put together a solid stretch of 4 years. He has been between TE15-20 in the past four years for fantasy across two teams. He now joins his third team in the Los Angeles Chargers. Not seen as one of the top prizes in free agency, Conklin lands in possibly the best spot.
Conklin’s best seasons were when he saw 70 or more targets. A number he hit each of the last 4 years. He now goes to the Chargers, who, despite being run first, still threw the ball 30 times a game on average. Conklin has all the potential to reach that 70 target mark. Will Dissly saw 65 targets in 16 games last year. Conklin is a better athlete than Dissly and has more experience.
I think Conklin can easily repeat his previous years’ finishes, where he was around the TE16. If you can pick him up free off waivers or in the last round of your draft, you can easily stream him with another tight end and play matchups.
Loser- Rookie TEs
We all wanted one of the many rookie tight ends in this draft to go to the Chargers. One of them may still but with Conklin on the roster, it puts them as the backup, waiting for a chance versus a Week 1 starter.
We just talked about how the volume is there in this offense. The tight ends combined last year for 13 red zone targets. That’s a good way to score fantasy points, especially for a rookie tight end. You now have to be hoping your favorite rookie tight end goes elsewhere unless you are playing the long game in dynasty.
Juwan Johnson- New Orleans Saints
Winner- Derek Carr (QB, NO)
Derek Carr always shocks fantasy managers every year. He always has a few weeks run where he looks like the best QB in the league, at least for fantasy. Part of that is him spreading the ball around. Carr missed a good chunk of the season last year with injury, as did his top two receivers. Familiarity and comfort will be key for Carr and the Saints if they want to win this year.
Carr and Juwan Johnson have that familiarity. Johnson has had at least 60 targets the past three years. He should continue this year with Carr as the starter. I’m drafting Carr as a starter for fantasy? Probably not. I want someone with more upside, but he should be a streamable option for fantasy managers who want to focus on other positions early in drafts.
Loser- Dallin Holker (TE, NO)
When people were looking for rookie sleepers last year some were talking up Dallin Holker. After his amazing two-ball catch last year at the combine, some thought he could be an offensive weapon. What ended up happening is Holker played very limited snaps and only ran routes on 75% of them.
He was behind Foster Moreau, Johnson, and Taysom Hill. All remain on the roster. With Johnson remaining as the primary pass catcher, Holker will continue to struggle to find a place in the offense.
Stone Smartt- New York Jets
Winner- Justin Fields (QB, NYJ)
Justin Fields gets his shot at leading a franchise again. Signing with the New York Jets gives him possibly the best team he has ever played for. One thing that Fields has always excelled at is targeting his tight end. From Cole Kmet in Chicago to Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh, having an athletic pass-catching tight end has been good for Fields.
Stone Smartt is just hasn’t proved it yet. Smartt is a converted quarterback, so his progression as a tight end is taking longer. He came off the Los Angeles Chargers, who allowed him to develop and worked him into the game plan.
Smartt over a rookie will be the true discussion point around Fields. Would the Jets and Fields have been better if they drafted a tight end? It’s something they still might do. Either way, I think Smartt helps Fields. He should get back into the low-end QB1 range due to his rushing upside.
Loser- Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Listen, Breece Hall will be good. Just maybe not as good as before. With Stone Smartt as the starting tight end, it hurts Hall. Smartt is not a great run blocker. Its something PFF.com has graded him low at in each game last season. His highest rated game was 62 while his lowest was 29. Most weeks, he was in the 60 range.
It’s a blow to Hall. He won’t have the outside blocking he is probably used to. Hall is a dynamic rusher who excels outside the tackle box. Smartt is struggling to block means either the Jets will have to rotate someone else in or get more creative in their play calling.
Kylen Granson- Philadelphia Eagles
Winner- Dallas Goedert (TE, Phi)
Rumors had been swirling that the Philadelphia Eagles were going to trade away Dallas Goedert. If they were still planning on doing that, I don’t think they would have signed Kylen Granson. There were plenty of other options available that would be a replacement for Goedert. With the signing of Granson, it looks as if the Eagles want to keep things intact and make a run at a Super Bowl repeat.
Goedert was a solid option when he was playing. He averaged 10 points per game last year. I expect him to continue this season. He will be under drafted due to his lack of scoring touchdowns, but will provide plenty of points for a manager looking for consistency. Granson is a slight upgrade as a backup but has never lived up to the hype.
Loser- Grant Calcaterra (TE, Phi)
Despite Granson never living up to the hype, he is an upgrade over Grant Calcaterra. What could have been for Calc, if the Eagles had decided to trade Goedert, they could have moved Calcaterra into the starting role. He played well there last season, filling in for Goedert.
The issue for Calcaterra is that even when Goedert missed time, he never saw over 5 targets a game. The low volume on a team that runs the ball a ton, has two great wide receivers, and often plays with the lead, doesn’t produce enough for what could now be the third tight end on the roster.
Let us know who YOU think is the biggest winner and loser over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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