Jaxson Dart vs Tyler Shough

I got a ton of flak for tweeting out that I believe Tyler Shough should be drafted before Jaxson Dart, in both redraft and dynasty leagues. Many people jumped on saying Dart was a WAY better prospect. That Dart will have a 10-year career, while Shough will get replaced in a year or two. My main counterpoint was that Shough will be starting sooner and wasn’t that far behind Dart as a prospect. So let’s break this down as to who has the upper hand based on several factors. I will give both players a score for each category out of 10.

Dart vs Shough

College production

One of the biggest knocks people have against Tyler Shough is that he didn’t show it in college. Despite playing six seasons in college, Shough had only 56 touchdowns, and 23 of them came in his final year at Louisville. Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart had 72 touchdowns in four seasons. If we are just going off those raw stats, yes, you can say Dart is the better prospect. I will admit that Dart is the better prospect, but the gap isn’t as large as people made it out to be. Let’s look at the numbers a little deeper and show the true gap.

A good chunk of Shough’s seasons were hampered by injuries. He only played one full season, and that was his final year. Before that, he only played at max seven games. Compare that to Dart, who played three full seasons, along with half a year when he was a freshman. It took Shough his full six years of actually playing to reach 39 games, where Jaxson Dart played 45. Looking at raw numbers, it should and does favor Dart. Those can be deceiving, and the metrics are a lot closer than people want to recognize.

Metrics

When we look at quarterbacks, there aren’t a ton of stats that predict future success. Completion percentage hasn’t borne too much predictability. While those numbers are not always predictors, we can’t ignore that two prospects have similar metrics.

I highlighted some of the metrics  (thanks to PFF.com). We can see that none of them highly favor Dart. When we look at the completion percentage it factors Dart slightly, but adjusted it favors Shough. Can Shough win you games? Big time throws are close, slightly on the Dart side. They both had about the same time to throw, but Shough turned less pressure into sacks and had ever so slightly less turnover worth play percentage.

The notion that Shough was a way worse prospect doesn’t come out in the stats and metrics. Next, you can look at the draft capital. While Jaxson Dart was a first-round pick and someone the Giants traded up for, the Saints still selected Dart at 40th overall. That’s not bad draft capital at all. If NFL execs. People who get paid millions of dollars to do this for a living tell me that Shough is that dude, then I’m going to believe them. Even if the NFL guys don’t have a great track record of evaluating prospects, especially at the quarterback position.

Age

People will knock Shough for his age. He will be 26 entering his rookie year, compared to Dart, who will be just 22. While that may ultimately cap the longevity of their career, we aren’t even there yet and may never get there. We may never see either of them play past 30 years old. I don’t mind a quarterback coming in a bit older. It worked well for Michael Penix, who came into the league at 25 and was very successful in his limited starts. One of the aspects we often overlook with quarterbacks is maturity. That often comes with age. Not always, but usually. Baker Mayfield needed to mature before he was successful. Not saying that Jaxson Dart is immature, but we can’t knock Tyler Shough for being older. Being slightly older has its benefits.

Rating: Dart- 8, Shough: 6

At the end of the day, Dart is the better passer. I don’t think he is head and shoulders above Shough. Watching the game film, there are plenty of things to like and dislike about each. Dart does have a rushing upside, which will translate to fantasy football. I honestly believe that most analysts were down on Shough before the draft because of him not being a top name in college and never spending enough time watching him and truly evaluating him.

Coaching Staff

Let’s dig into that a little more. Which coaching staff has the better history of both evaluating quarterbacks and coaching them up? Who should you trust more? I think this aspect is not talked about enough in general, but in the Dart vs Shough debate, it’s a key factor.

New York Giants

The Giants have Brian Daboll coming back for his fourth year as head coach, along with Mike Kafka as offensive coordinator and Shea Tierney as quarterbacks coach/ offensive passing game coordinator. This is the staff that not only stuck with Daniel Jones and signed him to a massive deal just two years ago. A player, they then went on and cut mid-last season. The team that didn’t feel the need to draft a quarterback in either of the previous two drafts, despite at least last year being a very deep class. You can say yes, Daboll and Tierney worked with Josh Allen in Buffalo and turned him around, but that is beginning to look like it either was a fluke or not Daboll at all, since he has not done it since. Kafka worked as the quarterback coach in Kansas City from 2018-2021 with Patrick Mahomes, but we haven’t seen that experience come through in New York.

New Orleans Saints

Compare that to the Saints crew. They now have a new coaching staff. Head coach Kellen Moore, Doug Nussmeier as offensive coordinator, and Scott Tolzien as quarterbacks coach. Moore has worked with Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. In each of those stops, as offensive coordinators, we have seen the quarterback excel. The same can be seen with Nussmeier. On top of those stops, he also helped Marc Bulger get to the Pro Bowl back in 2006. Tolzien was part of the Cowboys team that not only helped Prescott have his best years but was a large part of why Cooper Rush was able to be as successful as he was in 2024.

Rating- Dart: 4, Shough: 6

So, which coaching staff are we more confident in? Not only in them being right about a player, but also their ability to coach up a player and get the most out of them. We seem to have overwhelming evidence that the Giants staff is less than trustworthy, while the Saints have a great track record. We have countless examples of how a coaching staff can make or break a quarterback. Look no further than Sam Darnold in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell. Darnold went from flamed out to backup to MVP talk. Coaching matters. I’d rather have a quarterback with a good coaching staff. Yes, talent can trump that, but usually only when it’s level talent. I don’t see that from Dart or Shough.

Supporting staff

Another big part of the success of a quarterback is the weapons and team around him. We can’t ignore this when comparing Dart vs Shough. We have to look at two different factors. Who will be catching passes from Dart and Shough? And who will be protecting them? We can’t project too much into the future. Lots can change for sure, and one draft can bring in a top weapon, but we have who is on the roster now and who might be gone from the roster in the next 2 seasons via free agency.

New York Giants

It’s not even debatable that the Giants have the best pass catcher out of both teams. Malik Nabers is a superstar. Someone you should be trading for. He proved that last year with substandard quarterback play. He is the type of player who can not only excel with a bad quarterback but can help make them not look as bad. My biggest issue for the Giants is who else is there. I like Wan’Dale Robinson as a solid WR2, but he doesn’t have anything special. He is a consistent player who does what he does, but rarely flashes. After that, it’s Darius Slayton who, despite only being 28 years old, feels like he has been around the league forever. After those three, it’s Jalin Hyatt, Zach Pascal, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Guys who have bounced around or never done anything.

Tight end and running back aren’t much better. At tight end, we have Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson. I think both are better real-life football players than fantasy football players. Bellinger has played the past two seasons and hasn’t scored a touchdown or had over 30 targets a season. Johnson, whom I like as a deep sleeper, dealt with injuries last year. He is a solid player, but nothing special.

Tyrone Tracy at running back caught 38 percent of his 53 targets last season. A solid number, but not close enough to the upper-echelon players. The giants drafted Cam Skattebo to hopefully be the new replacement. He can pass catch and is exciting with the ball in his hands, but he isn’t nearly as a threat as you want. No one is going to call either a pass-catching back. They are backs who can catch.

The offensive line for the Giants was horrible last season. PFF.com rated them at 28th overall for pass blocking. Part of that could be due to rotating guys in due to injuries. They had 4 players play over 125 snaps at left tackle. They are bringing back that same unit this year, with the only addition being Stone Forsythe being brought in as a depth piece. A bad line that allowed a ton of pressure last season is being brought back, and hoping that injuries don’t hit and they can play above what they did last year.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints were worse last year than the Giants, which is saying a lot. PFF had them dead last in pass blocking. It’s a young offensive line that the Saints have spent the past two years’ worth of first-round picks on in Taliese Fuaga (2024) and Kelvin Banks Jr. (2025). That wasn’t where the Saints stopped. They brought in Will Clapp at center to push Erik McCoy and signed two depth pieces in Dillon Radunz and re-signed Landon Young. They lost guard Lucas Patrick, but he struggled with injuries and will not be on his third team in three years. If the young guys can mature and hold their own, it could be a boost to the protection for Shough.

The weapons for Tyler Shough in New Orleans are better than those of the Giants. While Chris Olave is not Nabers, he isn’t too far off. He has the talent to show that in 2023. He has never seen the target share that Nabers has, but that is because he has always had a better compliment than Nabers. I believe Rashid Shaheed is better than Wan’Dale Robinson. Shaheed brings a different skill set to the offense. I 100% believe that Brandin Cooks, even at his age, is better the Slayton. After Olave, Shaheed, and Cooks, the Saints have low-end guys like Bub Means, Cedrick Wilson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Dante Pettis.

The real scale tipper for me comes at the running back and tight end position. Mainly in running back Alvin Kamara. When we talk about true pass-catching backs, Kamara is the standard. While he is getting up there in age he is still a finishing as a RB1 year in and year out. With Kendre Miller and Devin Neal now backing him up the Saints running game is heads above the Giants. I still believe that long run Miller is dynasty deep stash.

The tight ends for the Saints, while not being superstars, are solid options in the passing attack. I will take Juwan Johnson over Bellinger and Johnson every day of the week. Foster Moreau is a savvy vet who can find spots in the defense and present a solid target. You will still find people who believe Dallin Holker can be a thing.

Rating- Dart: 5, Shough: 7

It’s all going to come down to two things for Shough. Slightly better weapons and a better O line, or at least a greater chance at being a better O line. I don’t love the fact that the Giants did nothing to fix the issue that goes beyond last year. I’m not sure even if all of their top guys were healthy for a full season, we would see a measurable difference. While neither of these supporting cast members is talked about in the same way we did Caleb Williams’s last season, they are good enough. It’s not like we are sticking them on a team with limited options.

Pathway to Starting

This is where I tend to lean in my dynasty league theory. I want guys who have the clearest pathway to starting. This plays out in two ways. First, you get a guy who will contribute to your lineup sooner rather than later. At the end of the day, I don’t get points this year for what someone does next year or points in Week 1 for what they do in Week 10. Secondly, I want to know what I have. Most dynasty leagues allow you to only put rookies in your taxi squad. It’s very hard for me to put a guy on my bench who hasn’t played, and I don’t know what they are. I’ll take the guy who is going to show it over a guy I have to wait on. What are the pathways to starting Dart and Shough?

Jaxon Dart

Dart was a first-round pick and someone the Giants traded up for, so the pressure to start him will be there. The Giants did go out this offseason and sign not only Jameis Winston but also Russell Wilson. It seems clear to me that this is Wilson’s job to lose. Is it likely we’ll see Dart at some point this season? Based on what we saw from Wilson last year, my confidence that we will see Dart is at 45%. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Wilson starts all year and has the Giants in a wildcard race, and we don’t see Jaxson Dart at all. The Giants don’t have a bye till Week 14. Thats late enough in the season that if they are out of the playoffs the roll out Dart to finish the season. They have a Thursday night game Week 6 which gives them a slightly longer break to install Dart if they are 2-4 but I don’t see that happening. Do I want to leave Dart on my taxi squad and then go into 2026 with him as my second or third quarterback on my roster?

Tyler Shough

With Derek Carr retiring, it all but secures the starting role for Tyler Shough in Week 1. Sure, the Saints could go out and sign Aaron Rodgers or trade for Kirk Cousins. I don’t think the retirement was a surprise for the Saints or changed their plans. It seemed like Carr was headed to the IR if he hadn’t retired. The same goes for bringing in a vet. They drafted Shough high enough to be the starter. We get to see what Shough is this year. I want that. If he isn’t good, you can move on.

Rating- Dart: 4, Shough: 9

The notion that Shough will have a one-year career and Dart will have a 10+ year career is mute. They both have the same probability of being good in the NFL, and as we already laid out, probably a higher one for Shough. I want to see what these guys are and move on. These guys aren’t going to be Jordan Love and sit on the bench for three years. They will be put to the fire. I want the guy who will be tested sooner. If he’s good, then great. If he’s not, I can move on. Dart wasting a spot on my roster now doesn’t help me win. It may be down the road, but it could be a year before I even get to see that.

Final Total

Dart= 21 Shough= 28

I’m willing to admit that there is some bias in this piece. I’m a believer in Tyler Shough. Yes, I think Jaxson Dart is good and could be a solid quarterback in the NFL. What I disagree with most in the online community is that Shough was not a good prospect and won’t be a good NFL quarterback. Even if you adjust the final results to account for bias, it’s closer than most people make it out to be. I want to see what my players are sooner rather than later. The probability of them having a long, successful NFL career is the same; it all comes down to how they perform in their first year or two. Shough has a more trustworthy coaching staff and a slightly better team around him. It will make up for the difference in college production.

Let us know who YOU think is the better draft pick over at The Fantasy Advice Network.

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