The NFL Draft is where quarterbacks either get the keys to the kingdom or find themselves wondering where they fit into the long-term plan. This year is no different. The 2025 NFL Draft has ended, but plenty of quarterbacks had their season outlook changed. No one was not impacted by the draft, but some were hot than others. Some for the positive. They saw their stock rise. Some for the negative. They saw their outlook come down. Let’s break down the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position after the NFL Draft.
NFL Draft Fallers
Sam Darnold- Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold was able to capture magic last year with the Minnesota Vikings. The biggest question that remains is what he will be in Seattle? Will he be the top 10 guy he was last year, or will he revert to the career backup, bust of a quarterback he has been the other six seasons of his career? The pressure to perform was magnified on draft weekend. The Seahawks did not draft a wide receiver to go along with Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp until the end of the 5th round. They did bring in an offensive lineman in the first round to help protect the quarterback. The real pressure comes from what the Seahawks did in the 3rd round. The Seahawks drafted Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and then traded away Sam Howell to the Vikings. It shows the Seahawks are not only looking towards the future but also hedging their bets in case Darnold isn’t the answer.
The weapons in Seattle are not what Darnold had last year, and the pressure to make a change will be coming from fans the moment he falters. If the Seahawks had used that 3rd round pick on a weapon and not a quarterback, the future for Darnold would be much brighter. Now he looks like a low-end starter to begin the season and a risky pick for late-season starts. Starting 17 games seems unlikely, let alone finishing as QB9 again.
Kyler Murray- Arizona Cardinals
This may be less about Kyler Murray falling and more about him staying put and others leapfrogging him. Kyler Murray had his typical season but was far below what most people expected. Given that they brought in Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, there was an expected bump. That never happened. Now, the Arizona Cardinals have spent all but their sixth-round pick on defense. Murray has a good offensive line and wasn’t sacked or hurried too often. Yet he still only threw for 21 touchdowns. He does have rushing upside with five rushing touchdowns.
So will the Cardinals’ offense finally click this year? Does Kyler finally reach the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks? History says that to do so, he will have to run the ball more. His best season was back in 2020 when he ran in 11 touchdowns. Kyler finished as QB10 last year. It was the first time since 2020 that he played every game. With no added weapons, Kyler will have to continue to run the ball and stay healthy to repeat as a top 10 guy. I see others surpassing him, like Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Patrick Mahomes.
Russell Wilson- New York Giants
Not only did it take a while for Russell Wilson to sign with a team he ended up signing with the New York Giants after they had already signed Tommy DeVito and Jameis Winston. Wilson was the presumed Week 1 starter, and his value rose. It looked like he would easily finish ahead of QB24. With Malik Nabers out there catching balls and solid secondary options in Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, Wilson had weapons.
Then comes the draft. The Giants take the best defensive player with the 3rd overall pick in Abdul Carter. Wilson managers thought they could beat easy btu that did not last long. Just 22 picks later, the Giants traded back into the first round to take Jaxon Dart. Instant pressure for the Giants to start him sooner rather than later. Wilson only had 5 multi-touchdown games and two with no passing touchdowns. He isn’t a turnover machine, which will keep him in the coach’s good graces, but at the end of the day, wins are what matter. At 36 years old, can Wilson still lead a team to wins in a tough division? He could lose the starting job in training camp if Dart balls out. He could get benched at any moment, with Dart being the future franchise guy and probably the coach and GM’s last effort to keep their jobs after this season.
NFL Draft Risers
Trevor Lawrence- Jacksonville Jaguars
I have always been vocal about my belief that Trevor Lawrence is good, not great, and will always remain in the QB14-17 range. I still believe that, but if there is ever going to be a season to prove me wrong, it’s 2025. The Jaguars brought in a new head coach in Liam Coen. A coach who has a history of improving underrated quarterbacks. They drafted well last year with Brian Thomas and added another weapon this year in Travis Hunter. This gives Lawrence the best set of weapons he has ever had. He will be coming back from a shoulder injury that cost him the last six games of the season. The Jaguars brought in 4 new offensive linemen in free agency and drafted a versatile lineman in the 3rd round.
Lawrence’s best fantasy finish was in 2022, where he was QB8. If he is ever going to get back there, then this is the season. They gave him a massive contract last offseason, and the shoulder injury cut it short, so the team will be expecting a step in the right direction. There are still some question marks about Gabe Davis as the WR3 and if Brenton Strange can fully take over Evan Engram’s role, but the top-end talent at wide receiver is there. Mix in the running game, and Lawrence had no excuses. He should be closer to the QB14 side of his range and potential to get into the low end of the top 10.
CJ Stroud- Houston Texans
Many were let down by C.J. Stroud in 2024 after his amazing 2023 rookie season. Part of the letdown was injuries to the wide receivers. Part of it was Stroud throwing more interceptions. Now entering year three, what can C.J. Stroud do? His touchdown numbers from year one to year two were not that different. Can he increase those? Can he have more scoring drives and give himself more opportunities? The Texans are all in for that. They spent four of their first five picks on the offensive side of the ball. They drafted a pair of teammates in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Added an offensive lineman in Aireontae Ersery and a solid rusher in Woody Marks.
All these go along with Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon. So many weapons that Stroud has no excuse. Tank Dell will eventually be back as well. Equipping your young franchise quarterback with weapons and protection, you usually succeed. While Stroud doesn’t have the rushing upside to get him into the top 5 in fantasy, he should easily beat his QB18 finish from last year. He only threw 20 touchdowns last year, and I expect him to be closer to 30 if not over that mark. He is a buy-low candidate who got a massive upgrade over the NFL draft weekend.
Drake Maye- New England Patriots
If you had to list the three things that a young quarterback needs, it would be a solid right tackle, a good pass-catching running back, and a wide receiver who can run crisp routes. Well, good news for Drake Maye, he got all three of those in the NFL Draft. The Patriots selected lineman Will Campbell in the first round. Then took running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second. Followed that up with wide receiver Kyle Williams in the third. Add those to the pieces they added in free agency, and all signs point to a breakout in 2025.
Maye finished as QB23 despite not playing in six games. He had 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Both of those numbers will improve this year. Can he be a top 10 guy? Probably not, but the team has put all the pieces there for him to continue to grow and mature as a pro-level passer.
Geno Smith- Las Vegas Raiders
Geno Smith got his third lease on life when not only did the Las Vegas Raiders and head coach Pete Carroll trade for him, but they also gave him a big contract. Coming into the NFL draft, Geno and fantasy managers were worried that the Raiders would select their future. Three days later, the only new quarterback on the team is Cam Miller, selected in the 6th round. It was a huge sigh of relief. Then you look at it further. The Raiders drafted running back Ashton Jeanty to give Geno a solid rushing attack. They then drafted a great route runner and pass catcher in Jack Bech. They finished the 3rd round by selecting not one but two offensive tackles to help protect Smith.
Geno finished 2024 as the QB13 while with the Seahawks. The Raiders failed to have consistency at quarterback last year. Geno fixes that. He also now has solid weapons around him. Before the draft things were looking suspicious with only Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers as notable names. Now with Jeanty and Bech in the fold, Geno should at least repeat his 2023 performance and has a shot to get back to his 2022 numbers where he was QB5.
Let us know who YOU think is the biggest riser and faller over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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