Running backs are not what they once were. Long gone are the bell cow backs who dominated and held onto their jobs for a whole career. With the NFL draft just ending, we saw 25 new running backs join the fraternity of the NFL. With that comes the rise and fall of other running backs. Whose fantasy values went up and whose values took a nose dive? Let’s break down the biggest riser and faller running backs.
Draft Risers
Chase Brown- Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy football managers were beyond happy with what they got out of Chase Brown last year. He was what some call a league winner. He went from a barely used handcuff in 2023 to a full-fledged bell cow in 2024. Pushing him to RB10 on the year. Many believed that Chase Brown’s starting role was in jeopardy heading into the NFL draft. They thought the Bengals would take a running back in an intense running back class. The Bengals ended up not taking one until the 6th round. Hardly a threat to his workload. Sure, Zack Moss still exists on the roster, but Brown beat him out for the job by Week 4 last season, so I don’t worry about him hurting Brown.
Chase Brown also got an additional boost in the NFL draft. The Bengals drafted a guard in the 3rd round in Dylan Fairchild. He should bring stability to the interior of the line that needs help. It will help open up holes for Brown and create time for Joe Burrow to keep drives going. RB10 is the bar to beat for Brown. I don’t know how much higher he can go, but I believe that he can at least match that number. He should see a bump in overall fantasy points. He scored 255 points last season. I expect Brown to be in the 275+ range this year.
MarShawn Llyod- Green Bay Packers
Remember the excitement everyone had for MarShawn Lloyd last year after the Packers drafted him in the 3rd round? Well, that level of excitement should be back. Llyod only played in one game last season. He dealt with several injuries from hamstring issues, to ankles to an appendix. A very disappointing season for sure. This year, Lloyd looks to get back on track and serve as the primary backup to Josh Jacobs. A role that gave Emanuel Wilson 106 carries. Some thought the Packers might draft a running back, considering the contract for Jacobs was front-loaded and very easy to get out of after this season. The Packers ended up not taking a running back at all.
They drafted Anthony Belton, who is a solid tackle who is known as a ferocious blocker. It’s a boon to the run game. Jacobs had 301 carries last season, so there is a question about workload management this year. Last season was only the second time Jacobs has played a full season in his six-year career. Llyod might not be a fantasy starter now, but a name to watch as his value rose significantly after the NFL draft.
James Cook- Buffalo Bills
James Cook might not have gotten the contract he wanted yet this offseason. While he doesn’t have the money he wants, he still has his role in the Bills’ offense. The Bills could have traded away Cook. Or just as likely drafted his replacement. Neither of those things happened. The Bills, in turn, spent almost all of their draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. Head coach Sean McDermott came out this week and said one of the biggest issues was getting the offense onto the field. Meaning they needed to stop other teams. An area this draft looks to improve on.
So, what will James Cook be in 2025? He finished as RB8 last year on the back of 16 rushing touchdowns. I do think that number comes down, but I expect his rushing attempts and targets to go up. The Bills did not add a wide receiver in the draft or a big name in free agency, so Cook will continue to be part of the passing offense. He had 266 fantasy points last season and can easily replicate that if not see a bump.
Draft Fallers
Rhamondre Stevenson- New England Patriots
How we all long for the days of 2022 when Rhamondre Stevenson finished the season as RB7. Those days are all but gone. Since then, the Patriots have never seemed comfortable giving Stevenson the lead role. In 2023, they brought in a nearly 28-year-old Ezekiel Elliott and split carries. Last season, they brought in Antonio Gibson to share the load with Rhamondre. Now, they not only drafted a backfield mate but most likely his full-on replacement in TreVeyon Henderson.
Henderson does everything well. He runs with speed and vision. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. It’s not just a complementary skill set to Stevenson, it’s a skill set that just needs a breather. Stevenson is part of the old regime. He was not drafted by the new head coach, Mike Vrabel. He has an expiring contract and has ball security issues. Stevenson finished as RB24 last season. You were probably never comfortable with him in your RB2 spot at any given time. I see very little room for him to reproduce that number and will fall off even more to being just a bye-week fill-in. The Patriots will lean more pass-heavy in Drake Maye‘s second season, giving even less work to the runners.
Najee Harris- Los Angeles Chargers
Najee Harris has been one of the most disrespected running backs in fantasy football. He has 1000 yards in each of his seasons and has never had less than 6 rushing touchdowns. He was a massive winner when he signed with the Los Angeles Chargers. A team that has a run-heavy offense under Jim Harbaugh. A scheme that looked locked and loaded to give Najee a career high in carries. Yet, as far as running back fallers go, Najee is probably the biggest one. The Chargers spent their first-round pick on Omarion Hampton. A running back who some considered the top in the class. A rusher who led the NCAA in carries and yards the past two years and had 15 touchdowns in each of those seasons. A rusher who can also catch the ball out of the backfield.
Hampton is a similar-sized back to Harris. Both are over 220 lbs and over six feet tall. Najee Harris has never missed a game in his career, but could now be looking at losing work to a younger version of himself. Najee finished as RB20 last year, and Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins finished as RB24 while only playing in 13 games. Most people were expecting Harris to finish in the RB15 range this year, given his history and the expected workload. Now with Henderson in the fold, I don’t see Harris finishing above RB25 and could be outside the RB3 range.
Jaylen Warren- Pittsburgh Steelers
With Najee Harris out of the picture and in L.A., Jaylen Warren looked to be the lead back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Warren had spent the past three years behind Najee Harris, taking the scraps and never having over 150 carries. As a smaller back, Warren used his speed and elusiveness to get his yards. After the 1st round of the NFL draft, Warren managers were excited to see them not draft a quarterback. A bad passing team usually means they have to run the ball more. That joy was short-lived as the Steelers took running back Kaleb Johnson in the 2nd round.
Johnson is very similar to Najee Harris in size and running style. That does not bode well for Warren, who just got rid of that bigger back on the team taking carries. It’s the same coaching staff that deployed the split between Harris and Warren, and now they have a new Harris. Warren finished 2024 as the RB39. He only managed one touchdown. I expect him to see a slight uptick in carries, but never get close to the 200 mark, and without the goal line work, his value is capped. I worry Warren won’t come close to repeating RB39 numbers and certainly won’t get close to the low-end RB2 numbers people expected when Harris left in free agency.
Let us know who YOU think is the biggest riser and faller over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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