The NFL Draft brings opportunity. Opportunity for some means less opportunity for others. No position is more impacted than the wide receiver position. Quarterback play, target competition, and shifting play-calling dynamics can hurt or hinder a receiver’s 2025 fantasy production. We break down which wide receivers rose and which fell after the NFL draft.
NFL Draft Risers
Calvin Ridley- Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley was once an up-and-coming star in the NFL. Back in his third season (2020), he finished as WR5. Then came a year of injuries and personal struggles. Then, a missed year due to a gambling suspension. He was traded from the Atlanta Falcons to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he succeeded in getting back to WR18 in 2023. He then signed with the Tennessee Titans last season, and his fantasy production suffered. Dealing with Will Levis at quarterback, Ridley saw 120 targets, but only 70 of them were catchable. He hauled in 64 of them for 1017 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Now, Ridley gets to revitalize his career with the help of first overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback. It’s a huge boost to Ridley’s fantasy value. Will Levis’s best season in college was equal to Cam Ward’s worst season. Even with the addition of Tyler Lockett to the offense, Ridley should still see 120+ targets. If more of them are catchable, he has a shot at reproducing his 2023 numbers and maybe even getting back to his 2020 numbers. The draft raised his stock a ton, and his value in drafts isn’t reflecting it yet.
Chris Olave- New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave’s 2024 season was cut short due to a head/ concussion issue. All reports have him coming back fully healthy in 2024. Olave is a special talent from the vaunted Ohio State program. Olave’s first two seasons in the NFL saw an increase in production and fantasy standing, and many hoped year three would be the time he reached the top 10. Now we all hope that it comes in 2025. Olave has been a fantasy producer despite poor quarterback play. He has dealt with Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler. The NFL draft changes things.
Olave might be getting an upgrade at quarterback. The Saints drafted Tyler Shough in the 2nd round. He has the potential to be not only a starter but a good one in the NFL. Shough was a seven-year player in college, so he has the experience. In his final year, he threw for 23 touchdowns. Shough was noted for his deep ball completion and being able to make throws under pressure. Quarterback pressure is something the Saints have struggled with. They were rated dead last in pass protection in 2024. The NFL draft brought some good news there as well. In the first round, they drafted Kelvin Banks. He’s a massive O-lineman who can help protect whoever is under center. That extra time will allow Chris Olave to get open, especially down the field. It should be wheels up in 2025 for Chris Olave.
Garrett Wilson- New York Jets
Garrett Wilson is an extremely talented wide receiver. One of the things keeping him from being a top-five wide receiver in the NFL has been the quarterback play around him. Even with dealing with sub-optimal play for Aaron Rodgers last year and the revolving door the year before, Wilson has still managed to put up solid numbers. The New York Jets opted to sign Justin Fields in free agency and not wait until the draft so how is Wilson an NFL Draft riser?
What the Jets did do was draft pieces that will help the passing game. First, they drafted tackle Armand Membou. He will be a force on that O-line. He will give Fields time in the pocket and open up rushing lanes for Breece Hall. A solid running game will help keep defenders in the box and remove some of the deeper coverage Wilson is used to seeing.
In the 2nd round, the Jets drafted tight end Mason Taylor. While Taylor isn’t the top receiving weapon that some of the other tight ends in the draft are, he is a solid blocker with a punishing run after the catch. He is another piece that bolsters the protection for Fields. The Jets didn’t spend a draft pick on a wide receiver until the 4th round, where they selected Arian Smith. It’s a great sign for Wilson, who didn’t end up with a top talent opposite him. We saw how that ate into his opportunities last year when the Jets traded for Davante Adams. Wilson remains a lock for 150+ targets this season.
NFL Draft Fallers
Josh Downs- Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are in a make it or break it year. It might be for everyone involved. From the coaching staff to the quarterbacks to the wide receivers. With that, making the most of the opportunities given will be a premium. The NFL Draft was not kind to one receiver in particular. Josh Downs. Downs struggled last year in games with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He is mainly the slot receiver, which makes him already a part-time player. The Colts are a run-first team running the ball the sixth most times per game in 2024. That limits Downs’ opportunities. The Colts spent a 4th-round pick and a big offensive lineman who excels in the run game.
The bigger issue for Downs is the first-round selection of Tyler Warren. Warren was one of the top two tight ends in the draft class. Warren is an excellent pass catcher who had 104 receptions last year at Penn State. It’s a massive investment in a tight end for a team that has struggled to get consistent production. They brought back Mo Alie-Cox, who projects to be more of a blocking tight end. This allows Warren to move to the slot more. A position where he ran 46.7% of his snaps last year. That will directly eat into Downs’ opportunities more. When you have a run-first team that invests in run blocking and another pass catcher in the first two rounds, it has to leave you questioning who will be the odd man out. To me, that is Josh Downs. Michael Pittman is the stud. Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are the deep and red zone threats now. Warren is the over-the-middle slot player. Downs had 107 targets last year, which was a great number, but only managed to finish as WR35. I doubt he reaches that level this year.
George Pickens & D.K. Metcalf- Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers haven’t had a losing season since 2003. That’s a long time to remain good. They haven’t been great since Ben Roethlisberger retired, but they always find a way to remain in the playoff hunt. That looked like it was going to continue this year. They went out and traded a 2nd round pick to get D.K. Metcalf from the Seattle Seahawks. Adding a great pass-catching weapon opposite George Pickens. The biggest issue the team had was at quarterback. Gone were both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Rumors of Aaron Rodgers swirled for weeks, but now it seems like that won’t happen.
We came into NFL Draft weekend expecting the Steelers to take a guy. They were holding the 20th pick overall, and without a 2nd rounder, they had to do it in the 1st. They were in place to take, at worst, the third-best quarterback. As Thursday night’s first round went on, we were all shocked when the Steelers decided to draft defensive tackle Derrick Harmon instead of a quarterback. Especially with only Cam Ward being off the board at the first overall pick. The Steelers had their choice and chose no one. They then doubled down on that by not taking one in the 3rd round. Opting for a running back (sorry, Jaylen Warren). With three quarterbacks now gone, the Steelers could have stopped the slide of Shedeur Sanders and selected the player I mocked them to take in the 1st round, Jalen Milroe. The Steelers ended up waiting till the 6th round to draft a quarterback. They did select Will Howard, who is coming off a national championship win. He will get a chance to start in camp, but it’s not a given.
If you are a manager holding Pickens or Metcalf, you have to be pretty sick over the possibility of Mason Rudolph throwing them the ball to start the 2025 NFL season. It’s possibly the worst possible outcome from the draft for Pickens and Metcalf. Their value falls to an all-time low. On top of not getting a top-end quarterback, the Steelers doubled down on their run-first mentality by taking a replacement for Najee Harris, who left via free agency in Kaleb Johnson. From a personnel standpoint and a philosophy standpoint, there might not be two bigger fallers in value post NFL draft.
Xavier Legette- Carolina Panthers
The Panthers seem committed to backing 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young. After a shaky rookie season, he came back late last year and showed flashes of why he was a winner in college and why the Panthers not only took him first overall but traded a good chunk of assets to do so. They have built a solid running game, and then this year went and drafted wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. TMac, as he likes to be called, not Tet, is poised to be the alpha in the Panthers’ wide receiver room. This draft pick shakes up the order and standings in that room. The biggest value faller from this is sophomore Xavier Legette.
While head coach Dave Canales has come out and said that he thinks Legette is the guy, history shows that’s probably not true. First off, if you have to say someone is the guy, then they probably aren’t. We don’t hear that about top receivers, even young ones. Second, you don’t spend a 1st round draft pick on the top receiver if you believe you have an alpha. Third Legette wasn’t it last year. I know he was dealing with various injuries last season, but who isn’t?
Legette was beaten out by fellow rookie Jalen Coker. Coker is mainly a slot receiver, but he saw almost half as many targets as Legette, but still managed to have 20 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns. Veteran Adam Thielen is still there and, despite being 34 years old and only playing in 10 games compared to Legette’s 16, had more yards, more touchdowns, and one fewer catch on 20 fewer targets. So, not only was Legette third on the team in most categories, but he also now loses his outside role to McMillian. I can see a world where it is McMillan and Thielen on two wide sets with Coker coming in for slot roles. They also signed Hunter Renfrow, who probably doesn’t directly compete with Legette for snaps but will for targets. Add in tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, and we could be looking at sub-60 targets for Legette. He finished as WR61 last year. I doubt he will be a flex play this year and probably odd man out on that offense unless he shows something special in training camp.
Let us know who YOU think is the biggest riser and faller over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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