Sam Darnold resurrected his career in 2024, which earned him a starting job with Seattle for the next 3 years. Darnold signed a three-year, $105 million deal with over $50 million fully guaranteed. Was this move the right move for Darnold? Will this improve Darnold’s fantasy stock? What other players are impacted in fantasy by Darnold’s signing?
Winners of the Sam Darnold Signing
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: WR, Seattle Seahawks
The biggest benefactor from this signing is 3rd-year wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has operated in Seattle’s wide receiver 2 / wide receiver 3 role for the last 2 years. With Tyler Lockett released and DK Metcalf traded, JSN catapults to the clear #1 position. JSN had 137 targets in 2024 and should see even more with being the #1 guy. Pair that with Darnold as his quarterback, a clear upgrade over Geno Smith, we expect JSN to go nuclear in 2025. He was a top 15 fantasy wideout in 2024, and we expect a top 8 finish for the young wideout in 2025.
J.J. McCarthy: QB, Minnesota Vikings
With Darnold officially out of the picture, this paves the path for J.J. McCarthy to take the reins in Minnesota. McCarthy missed all of last season with a torn meniscus he had sustained during the preseason. This is what gave Darnold the chance to step up to the plate to begin with. The job is now McCarthy’s as Minnesota leadership doubles down on their investment in him. With the starting job, McCarthy had all the pieces around him to succeed. McCarthy has Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones. All players that Sam Darnold was able to thrive with. As a result, McCarthy is flying heavily under the radar in fantasy leagues as a projected QB26. With the weapons he has at his disposal, McCarthy is in line for a top-15 finish.
Losers of the Sam Darnold Signing
Sam Darnold: QB, Seattle Seahawks
From a payday perspective, Sam Darnold is a massive winner. From being labeled a former draft bust to now signing a three-year, $105 million deal. Darnold earned every penny of that contract from his standout campaign in 2024. He led the Vikings to an astounding 14-3 regular season record. Unfortunately, it all came crashing down when Darnold choked in the playoffs. Darnold only threw one interception, but his accuracy was poor in that game. This was enough for the Vikings’ management to move on from Darnold.
The situation that Darnold will join in Seattle is nowhere near as great as he had it in Minnesota. With the Vikings, Darnold had a top 3 receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, a star #2 in Jordan Addison, and a reliable tight end in T.J. Hockenson. In Seattle, his top playmaker will be Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a young, inconsistent receiver. Smith-Njigba did have his first 1,000-yard campaign in 2024, which is promising for Darnold. Outside of JSN, the situation is very bleak.
Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison, WRs, Minnesota Vikings
There’s no doubt that Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison are incredibly talented athletes. Jefferson is a top 2 wide receiver in the league, and Addison might be the best #2 receiver. Both wideouts finished as top 20 receivers in fantasy last year. With a rookie quarterback, there are sure to be growing pains. We still expect Jefferson to dominate, largely due to his talent and ability to break away from the defense. However, we’re not expecting him to finish in the top 2 at the position where he’s used to being. We’d prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown & Ja’Marr Chase over Jefferson until McCarthy can prove that he can handle the job.
Consequently, we expect Addison to take a bigger hit in fantasy value. Darnold finished as QB8 on the year, and Addison had his best season with Darnold’s play. With someone who has yet to play a single snap in the NFL and is recovering from an injury, there are a lot of question marks. History tells us that inexperienced quarterbacks favor the #1 guy heavily, and the #2 often gets overlooked. We’re expecting Addison’s production to take a hit. Furthermore, we expect Addison to end up somewhere in the WR30 range.
Sam Howell: QB- Seattle Seahawks
Sam Howell’s time as the starter in Seattle was short-lived. After being traded to the Seahawks last season, he now looks to be the number two guy with Sam Darnold signing. At best, Howell will get a chance to compete for the job in camp. When the Seahawks traded away Geno Smith, some thought they might draft a guy to sit behind Howell.
There is still some small hope for Howell. He has starting-caliber potential; he just needs his shot. If Darnold falters, the Seahawks may turn to Howell. Overall, it’s not a great day for Howell. If the Seahawks do end up drafting one of the many project quarterbacks, then Howell may end up being a late preseason cut. That would ruin any hope for Howell in the future.
