Date: Thursday, September 12, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Line: Dolphins -1
Over/Under: 49.5
As we head into Week 2 of the NFL season, the Buffalo Bills travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in what promises to be a high-scoring, action-packed matchup on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are looking to build on their Week 1 performances, with key players on both sides facing pivotal moments early in the season.
Buffalo Bills Breakdown
QB: Josh Allen (QB1)
Props: 247.5 Passing Yards, 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
Josh Allen kicked off his season by showcasing his dual-threat ability, recording two rushing touchdowns with 39 yards on the ground. However, his passing game struggled without Stefon Diggs, as the Bills are still searching for a reliable lead receiver. Allen seemed to favor Keon Coleman in week 1 with a team leading 5 targets, but Khalil Shakir had the touchdown and Dalton Kincaid ran the 2nd most routes on the team. The top target spot is still very much open for someone to establish themselves. Betting on Allen for an anytime touchdown is a solid option, and the over on his passing and rushing yards could hit in what looks to be a high-scoring affair.
RB: James Cook (RB18)
Props: 41.5 Receiving Yards, 3.5 Receptions
James Cook continued to be heavily involved in the Bills’ offense, tallying 71 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards on 22 opportunities. While Cook remains a strong RB2 option, his inability to convert red-zone chances into touchdowns limits his ceiling. He was given multiple opportunities inside the 5 this week with nothing to show for it once again. The matchup though seems to be a favorable one after watching the Dolphins defense allow 4.8 yards per carry to the Jaguars RBs in week 1. Between his matchup and strong overall volume James Cook is a lock em in start as a mid-level RB2 tier player. His props this week are fairly accurate, making them less appealing for bets.
WR: Keon Coleman (WR44)
Props: 45.5 Receiving Yards
Keon Coleman led the Bills in routes run and targets in Week 1, but with just 51 receiving yards, his output was modest. His overall usage to kickoff the season should be view as optimistic for his potential season outlook. He faces a tough challenge this week though, matched up against Miami’s Jalen Ramsey. I wouldn’t yet be confident plugging Coleman into your lineps this week. Betting the under on his receiving yards seems wise, with the middle of the field likely being the area the Bills attack through Kincaid and Shakir.
WR: Khalil Shakir (WR38)
Props: 41.5 Receiving Yards, 3.5 Receptions
Shakir has the most favorable matchup of the Bills’ wide receivers, facing Miami’s slot defenders. PFF has this graded above a 67 which shoild be considered a favorable grade. He played significantly more snaps than Curtis Samuel and should be more involved in the game plan. Shakir can be considered a flex play in 3 WR leagues. The over on his 41.5 receiving yards prop looks like a solid play.
TE: Dalton Kincaid (TE4)
Props: 3.5 Receptions, 41.5 Receiving Yards
Kincaid had a slow Week 1 with just one target but was heavily involved in routes and snaps, signaling a potential breakout. In factbit was the most snaps and routes run he has had in his career in games that Dawson Knox was alos on the field. Miami gave up the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and with the need for someone to become a lead pass catcher, Kincaid could emerge as one of Allen’s top two targets. Expect him to have a larger role this week.
Miami Dolphins Breakdown
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (RK QB10)
Props: 264.5 Passing Yards, 1.5 Passing TDs, 32.5 Passing Attempts
Tua led the NFL in passing yards in Week 1 but faces a tough history against the Bills with a 1-6 record and a 6:7 TD-INT ratio. However, Buffalo’s secondary is depleted, which should allow Tua and his elite wideouts to exploit the defense. Expect heavy passing in what could be a shootout, making Tua a solid QB1 option.
RB: Devon Achane (RK RB16)
Props: 54.5 Rushing Yards
Achane played a bigger role than Raheem Mostert last week, but while Mostert is ruled out this week, Achane is dealing with an ankle issue himself. Achane has become a key passing target out of the backfield, racking up seven targets last week, making him a mid-level RB2 with potential for effectively being the 3rd target on the teams’ pecking order throughout the season. The main concern, outside of inury, is Miami’s struggling offensive line, which could limit Achane’s rushing efficiency. He is in your lineup if he is active, but probably a good idea to stay away from any Props.
RB: Jeff Wilson (RK RB34)
Wilson saw minimal usage in Week 1 but could play a larger role with Mostert out and Achane dealing with an ankle injury. Wilson should be considered a flex option with the potential for an increased workload. It seems unlikely for those that were hoping Jaylen Wright could be in line for touches in an injury situation to get their wish. Wright was a healthy scratch in favor of Wilson, pointing towards Wright as the 4th string RB.
WR: Tyreek Hill (RK WR1)
Props: 98.5 Receiving Yards, 7.0 Receptions, 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
Hill was a target monster in Week 1 and should continue to dominate against a banged-up Bills secondary. Even against Buffalo’s top corner Rasul Douglas, Hill is poised for another elite performance. PFF grades his matchup highly, and there’s no reason to expect anything less than WR1 production this week. Betting on Hill for an anytime touchdown is a smart move.
WR: Jaylen Waddle (RK WR11)
Props: 64.5 Receiving Yards
Waddle went over 100 yards in Week 1 and will continue to be Tua’s second option behind Hill. Waddle is also considered by PFF to have an above average matchup vs this Bills’ secondary and should be considered a high end WR2 or better. With an average of 67.5 receiving yards per game against Buffalo in his career, Waddle is a safe bet for the over on his 64.5 receiving yards prop in a potentially high-flying matchup.
